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Posted at 1:30 PM EST.

COLUMBUS -½ +275 over Tampa Bay

7:05 PM EST. Regulation only. The 2019–2020 Stanley Cup Champions Tampa Bay Lightning are on an island of their own as far as team strength when everybody is healthy, and they’ve got a legitimate argument for the best team even without their best player. They’re elite defensively, their goaltending has finally put together results that almost match their reputation, and their offense doesn’t generate a ton of quantity but more than makes up for it with quality and shooting. However, they opened the year with back-to-back victories over a Blackhawks’ team that looks like they may win fewer games than any team in the NHL so if there is a Cup hangover, it was unlikely to show up against Chicago.

No matter how good a team is, they are going to show up flat from time to time this season because of cancellations, unusual scheduling and a routine that is anything but routine. The Bolts have played just twice this year and have not played for six days.

The Jackets are in no way intimidated by the Bolts. They have played nose to nose with this rival in back-to-back playoff years and have given them as much trouble as any team in the league. We may not be as high on the Jackets as others, as John Tortorella drove a mediocre-on-paper roster to expected goal shares that were well above average but no matter how you break it down, the Jackets are going to be a pain in the ass to everyone that plays them. This roster’s lack of talent shines through in the estimated impact of their goaltending and shooting, both of which are below average (right now). Their strengths and weaknesses balance out to create a team that will win games they are expected to lose and lose games they are expected to win. They may not win here but they offer up tremendous value in the underdog role and they catch the Bolts are a great time.

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