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Posted at 1:30 PM EST. 

Washington -½ +186 over PITTSBURGH

7:08 PM EST. The age old question is whether or not one should wager on NHL games based on starting goaltenders. The sportsbooks have never embraced the fact that goaltenders have just as much impact on the outcome of games as starting pitchers do in baseball. A colleague of ours and somebody that has extensive knowledge of the sports gambling business pointed out to us that this flaw is something that could work in our favor since the books don’t make the right adjustments based on the starting goaltenders. This game is a prime example of that. 

Vitek Vanecek was terrific in his NHL debut, stopping 30 shots in a 2-1 win over Buffalo while Ilya Samsonov is 1-0-1 but has given up seven goals in two games. Vanecek looked very comfortable and while it’s way too early to get a true assessment, at least he has one game under his belt and knows he belongs. A confident goalie with talent is not a bad place to start.

There’s another old saying that states that if you have two goaltenders battling for the #1 job you have zero goaltenders. That applies to the Pens. Of the 49 goaltenders that have started at least one game this year, Tristan Jarry ranks 49th in Goals Saved Above Average while tonight’s goaltender, Casey DeSmith ranks 29th. 

Alex Ovechkin is still an elite shooter and a very good generator of offense at even strength and on the power play. The Caps are still a strong defensive team as a whole. The Caps are a team that has their strengths and weaknesses but we have seen this team get outplayed for years and win because they are such good shooters. The Caps are hanging on to a dream of contention that they’ve had for about fifteen straight years and achieved once. Actually, Washington is built fairly well but when we can get them against weak goaltending at a price like this, it’s no joke and we’re inclined to bite. The Penguins failed to address their goaltending this saeason and it's already cost them and will continue to cost them.

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