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Posted at 1:30 PM EST. 

San Jose -½ +200 over ARIZONA

9:05 PM EST. Regulation only. The Arizona Coyotes were not a strong possession team last year and they didn't get any better. They gave up a ton of shots but their goaltending was elite, and their shooters are decent enough to score on counter-attacks. A rich man’s version of a bad hockey team is still a bad hockey team, This team is built to be annoying and win a bunch of games they’re not supposed to because of great goaltending. Of the five clubs expected to finish fourth through eighth in the West, Arizona could be the one that struggles the most, despite the fact that the Kings and Ducks are bigger longshots and the Sharks have roughly the same odds as the ‘Yotes.

So, Arizona lost its best player, Taylor Hall, to free agency. That leaves a massive hole at the top of a lineup that was already short on scoring talent. Without Hall, the Coyotes will lean on Phil Kessel, Nick Schmaltz, Conor Garland, Christian Dvorak, Derick Brassard and Clayton Keller to lead the line. All six of them are nifty supporting players, but none of them would be considered first-liners on a contender. It’s a similar situation on defense. Arizona’s blueline is a stronger overall unit than the forwards, but nothing really leaps off the page. When Arizona is favored, they are likely going to be one of the better fade candidates in the game and we’ll put that to the test here.

Frankly, we don’t like the Sharks either. San Jose’s possession numbers are more likely to decline than improve thanks to the age of their skaters. The Sharkies lost some of the talent that made them a dominant play-driving team two years ago, and almost every single one of players they’ve retained is projected to perform a lot worse than they did that year. It’s easy to get caught in the trap that this team’s upside should be roughly equal to what they did just two years ago, but the truth is that it’s a lot lower.

Contrary to popular belief, the biggest problem with the San Jose Sharks last season wasn’t actually goaltending; it was an uncharacteristically poor performance from their skaters. The Sharkies acquired Devan Dubnyk from Minnesota. The decision to walk away from a decent backup in Aaron Dell and add one of the worst goalies in the league in Dubnyk to a team that already has one of the worst goalies in the league in Martin Jones makes it a near-certainty that poor goaltending will drag this team down harder than their potentially half-decent group of skaters will. Now, any time that anybody says something about goaltending, it should be noted that goaltending is random enough that it’s not even outside a reasonable range of possibilities that one of these guys has a good season.

The Sharks certainly have the talent to compete and possibly beat out Arizona, Anaheim and Los Angeles, but whether the franchise, which is staring down a rebuild, would benefit from what would likely be a one-and-done playoff push is an interesting dilemma. The Sharks were pretty bad across the board in 2019-20. San Jose finished 30th in goal differential per 60 minutes, 24th in xGoal Differential and last in 5-on-5 save percentage. Nothing went right, thus we have to at least consider that improvement is likely. At the very worst, the top of the roster looks formidable with Logan Couture, Tomas Hertl, Timo Meier, Evander Kane, Brent Burns and Erik Karlsson. That’s a competitive core and one that can be built around and while we’re very concerned about San Jose’s goaltending, we still have to fade the Coyotes when they’re favored.

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