Pinnacle -½ +101 Bet365 -½ -115 SportsInteraction -½ -115 5DIMES -½ -105 888Sport -½ -113

Posted at 12:45 PM EST.

VEGAS -½ +101 over San Jose

10:30 PM EST. Regulation only. So much to like here about Vegas. First off, everything you have read or heard about the Golden Knights is true. Deep, talented, and explosive, the Golden Knights are a true Cup contender that made an unexpected exit from last year’s playoffs by way of one of the worst calls in NHL history by the Locker Room employees. We’re sure you recall what happened but in case you did not, Google it and watch the horror. In any case, the Knights have a score to settle and their opening night opponent just happens to be the team that benefited from that disgusting call in last year’s playoffs. It was indeed the Sharks that pulled off a miracle and knocked Vegas out of the playoffs. While we’re not advocates of the “revenge angle” this one has some bite, as the Knights look to right a wrong and they couldn’t have handpicked a team that they would rather play on opening night to get fired up against. This is an elite team that is the only team in the entire West that is projected to reach or go over 100 points. This is also one of the toughest buildings in the NHL to win at.

The next thing we like is that the line opened with Vegas being in the -200 range. Now, we’re not knocking anyone’s style of wagering because if it works for you, all the power to you. However, one of the strategies used by some bettors is to “beat the closing line”. In other words, they would anticipate a rise or drop from the opening line and bet accordingly. For instance, with Vegas opening as a -200 fav, the anticipation was that the line will drop so if you bet the Sharks at the opening line of +180 and they are now just +160, you got “market value” on that wager. While it’s true one got “market value, that strategy is predicated on the oddsmakers putting out a “weak or bad number” and the market subsequently making a correction. We, on the other hand, prefer to be on the same side as the oddsmakers and not the public’s perception of a weak number. If oddsmakers opened with the Sharks at -200 and the price is now -160, isn’t it true that there is value on the favorite in this case also? “Beating the closing line” is a weak strategy that we are going to discuss in length on in an upcoming podcast. Seriously, when the lines come out in the evening for the next day, we could beat the closing line every single day without fail but choose not to employ that strategy. That strategy suggests that the market is sharper than the oddsmakers.

Back to the Sharks. San Jose probably hasn’t been priced in the +180 or so range in a very long time. It is so rare to see San Jose being offered at a price like they opened at and the market bit at it to being it down. We’re going to trust the oddmakers here that regression for the Sharks almost a certainty.

The Sharks have been running with a veteran lineup for years. That experience has kept them competitive but this off-season, there wasn’t enough cap space to retain Joe Pavelski, Gustav Nyquist and Joonas Donskoi. Justin Braun was another casualty, moved to create space. The only new signings were fringe players like Dalton Prout and Jonny Brodzinski. The Sharkies are still strong on the back end but they lack depth and they lack balance and they lack solid goaltending. The glory days are over for the Sharks and the time to bet against them would be now before a market correction occurs.

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