NHL Finals - Game 5
St. Louis +135 over BOSTON

BEST LINES:  Pinnacle +132 BET 365 +135 SportsInteraction +126 5DIMES +135 888Sport +132

Posted at 11:45 AM EST.

8:08 PM EST. OT included. The Blues are not being outclassed in this series one bit. In fact, St. Louis has clearly been the better team in every game except in Game 1’s final two periods. That 7-2 loss im Game 3 was an extremely misleading score, as the Bruins scored four times on four power-play opportunities and they scored seven times on a mere 23 hots on net with only five high danger chances. In the last three games, the Blues have dominated time of possession in the offensive end. Over the last three games, the Blues have created more scoring chances (25-16 in Game 2, 21-16 in Game 3, 18-14 in Game 4) while also dominating the High Danger Scoring Chances by a combined count of 26-16. The Blues are suffocating the Bruins. They are also suffocating the “Perfection Line”.

The plus/minuses on the three all sit in the negative, with David Pastrnak sitting at a lowly -4, Patrice Bergeron with a -3 and Brad Marchand with a -3. While plus/minus by no means should be the end all be all of how a player is performing, it says a lot of how much the Blues are physically wearing down the Bruins, just like they did against the Sharks last round. The Perfection Line carries much of the fame and blame in wins or losses and their performances in the Stanley Cup Final so far has hurt them in a major way. The Blues have won the Corsi For % battle by a wide margin too over the past three games.

Last game in St. Louis, the Blues were a small favorite despite being the better team in the series. In Game 3, the Blues were also a small favorite at home. In Boston, however, the Bruins are not a small favorite despite being the second best team on the ice for most of this series. It is not the Bruins with momentum coming into Game 5. It is not the Bruins that are physically imposing their will against the Blues either. It is St. Louis that is methodically wearing down Boston period by period and it is the Blues that will carry that knowledge and momentum into Game 5. More importantly, the betting lines in this series are completely out of whack, as it is the Bruins that should be a small favorite at home and a bigger underdog on the road but market perception has it backwards. St. Louis may not win here but without question, it is the Blue Notes that offer up all the value in both the updated series line (+130) and this game.    

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Our Pick

St. Louis +135 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.70)

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New Jersey +127 over Toronto
Vegas +124 over Nashville