Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 11:45 AM EST & updated at 6:30 PM EST.
8:08 PM EST. Regulation only. We’re very interested to see where this line ends up tonight, as it was a pick ‘em yesterday but the Blues are in the -114 to -120 range (at the time of this writing - 10:00 AM EST). We anticipate that the price on the Blues is coming down and will be closer to a pick ‘em again by game time. It is for that reason that we’ll wait and until after dinner to make this wager because if it comes in at -110 or less, we’ll play the Blues with OT included. Note that SIA has St. Louis at -105 so if you have an account there, the recommendation is to bet it now. We'll update this later to inform you precisely what the bet is for "record keeping purposes only" I have an account at SIA and will bet St. Louis at -105.
St. Louis was -125 in Game 3 and got destroyed 7-2. The Bruins led 3-0 after one period and cruised to an easy win that was never in doubt while knocking out starting goaltender Jordan Binnington in the process. A 7-2 blowout resonates in the market because the media including TV and radio shows focus on results only, which in turn influences the market. The narrative after Game 3 is that the Blues are outclassed. What that 7-2 final score in Game 3 doesn’t tell you is that Boston scored seven times on 23 shots. It also doesn’t tell you that the Bruins went 4-4 on the power-play (100%) when the league average is in the 20% range. The Blues didn’t play a bad game, they just appeared to have played a bad game because Boston scored on every PP chance instead of going 0-4. Jordan Binnington had a rare shaky game too. Fact is, the Blues limited the Bruins chances to very little. In fact, Boston had five High Danger Chances while the Blues had nine. The Bruins had 16 total scoring chances while the Blues had 21. In High Danger Chances over the past two games, give the Blues a 20-12 edge.
St. Louis gets Oskar Sundqvist back tonight after he was suspended for Game 3. “Sunny” has been an integral part of the Blues fourth line that has done extensive damage throughout the entire playoffs thus far. St. Louis is being outscored in this series but other than the final two periods of Game 1, they have not been outplayed. The Blues absolutely dominated Game 2. That said, we’re not predicting a Blues win here. We’re once again playing the overreaction to what the market is being fed, which is that the Bruins are too good for the Blues. We are not in the prediction business. Rather, we’re in the value business and we’re merely pointing out that the Blue Notes are not being outclassed and they are absolutely a play here based on them being sold short/underpriced. Now let the chips fall where they may.
Open an account today at and take advantage of their -104 style pricing on sides and totals, which is 60% better than other sportsbooks
ST. LOUIS -107 +146 (Risking 2.14 units - To Win: 2.00)