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Posted at 11:40 AM EST

8:00 PM EST. OT included. We wonder how many of you check the “Odds to win the Cup” after every game because they are constantly changing as series momentum shifts from game to game? Prior to Game 4 of this series with the Caps leading 2-1 and with Pittsburgh and Tampa already knocked out and Calgary on the verge of being knocked out, Washington was listed as a 5½-1 choice (one of the favs) to win the Cup. Down 2-1 in the series and home for Game 4 after dominating Game 3 in Carolina, the Hurricanes were listed at  a ridiculous 30-1 to win the cup before Game 4. We mention this because it shows the market credibility of these two. The Caps have a ton of it while the ‘Canes have none. Truth is, with a bounce or two in Games 1 and 2 in Washington, Carolina could have won this series in four games. Had the Caps got 50 bounces in Game 3, they probably still would’ve lost because that’s how badly they were outplayed. In fact, with five minutes left in the second period of Game 3, Washington was being outshot 32-9 and had zero shots on net in the second period.

Pierre McGuire, that little weasel that does the color for NBC does not believe in analytics. During a recent telecast, he yelled, “Analytics doesn’t measure heart”. At age 32, McGuire, at that time, was named the head coach of the Hartford Whalers. Prior to becoming coach of the Whalers, McGuire had never been a head coach at any level. During his six months as Whalers coach, McGuire coached the team to a 21–39–7 record and was fired as head coach on May 19, 1994. After the termination, captain Pat Verbeek called it the best thing that could have happened to the Whalers. He said his teammates had no respect for McGuire and that McGuire was mocked by other teams too.

We mention this because analytically speaking, this has been the biggest mismatch in the first round of the NHL playoffs this year and it’s not in Washington’s favor. If Braden Holtby steals this one and the series, so be it but don’t let the media or what little some know about Carolina prevent you from playing the value in this game or series.

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