Ottawa @ PHILADELPHIA
Ottawa +231 over PHILADELPHIA

BEST LINES:  Pinnacle +231 -106 BET 365 +220 SportsInteraction +225 5DIMES +225

Posted at 12:45 PM EST

7:05 PM EST. OT included. The Flyers have won five of seven while the hockey betting world craps all over the Senators, thus the massive price on Philly. but let’s have a closer look at its five victories and beyond. Philadelphia’s five wins came against the reeling Islanders x2, New Jersey, Buffalo and Pittsburgh. In its last win, the Flyers scored three goals on their first five shots against Thomas Greiss, Greiss was yanked 11 minutes in and the Flyers won 5-2. They were out-chanced by New Jersey in a 6-3 win. They were dominated by Pittsburgh in a OT victory. Obviously this isn’t a step up in class by the Flyers but teams that are playing the Sens these days tend to “take a day, shift or period off" and in this league, that’s playing with fire. After consecutive games against Columbus, New Jersey, Islanders, Washington and the Islanders again, the Flyers are in a vulnerable spot here. Furthermore, Flyers forward Jakub Voracek received two games for interference on Johnny Boychuk. Voracek back-checked a streaking Boychuk in the third period of Saturday’s game and the Department of Player Safety handed him a two-game suspension for it. Voracek will serve Game 1 of his suspension here.

Since February 1, the Philadelphia Flyers rank 30th out of 31 teams in Corsi For % during five-on-five play and the Senators aren’t below them. That distinction goes to the Devils. Over that same stretch, the Flyers rank dead last in High Danger Scoring Chances for per 60 minutes and Scoring Chances for. Hell, they even rank worse than the Kings and Devils when it comes to creating scoring chances. Now remove Voracek from the equation.

Ottawa has been a lot more competitive than this line suggests. Its last four games were a 3-2 win over the red-hot Panthers, a 5-4 OT loss to the Isles, a 4-2 loss to the Isles again and a 3-2 loss in Boston. Ottawa outchanced the Isles in both games and also out-chanced Florida. The game prior to those four, the Sens lost 5-1 to Tampa but out-chanced the Bolts in High Danger Chances 14-10 with the overall chances being dead even at 24 each. It may surprise you to learn that since February 1, a span of 19 games, the Sens rank second in High Danger Scoring Chances For during five-on-five play. That’s 29 positions higher than Philadelphia. In fact, analytically speaking, the Sens rank higher than the Flyers in everything over the past six weeks and now the Flyers are favored in a range that is completely outrageous. Not only are the Flyers in a vulnerable spot, they are not close to being good enough to be priced like this over anyone. Don’t forget to use Ottawa in some regulation money line parlays too @ -½ +375. Ottawa will win again this year, that we promise you and this is as good a place to get one as any. Big overlay.

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Our Pick

Ottawa +231 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 4.62)

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Chicago +167 over Ottawa