Columbus @ Pittsburgh
Columbus/Pittsburgh over 1½ -175

BEST LINES:  Pinnacle  o1½ -200 365 o1½ -175 SportsInteraction N/A 5DIMES o1½ -195

Posted at 8:45 AM EST.

Columbus/Pittsburgh over 1½ -175

7:05 PM EST. 1st PERIOD ONLY. This is a first period bet only and we’re going to parlay it with others to make three, two-game parlays for 0.7 units each. The breakdown and payouts are at the bottom of this writeup.

Yesterday we approached this subject for the first time on here and cashed two out three parlays for a nice profit. However, because the lines changed dramatically, they were unplayable at the time of our posting, thus, we're posting these early in the day before the number moves ro a price we cannot play. Some of you may have read or heard about this market inefificiency on ViSN's "Follow the Money" but regardless it is a market inefficiency that we're going to try to take advantage of. The rest of today's wagers will be posted at the same times as always.

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From the start of the year to January, there were a bunch of teams that were having an incredible run of first-period overs. There were five teams that were hitting over 67% on first-period overs through 45 games, which is a decent enough sample size for us to pay attention to. There is no question that goal-scoring is up this year because of numerous factors that include the removal of goons from the game, the skill level of the players and the downsizing of goaltender equipment.

NHL totals for years prior to this season were always in the 5 to 5½ range but this year, rarely do we see 5½’s. It’s now 6, 6½ and we’ve even seen some 7’s but the first period total has remained the same at 1½. Next year, expect to see 2’s but there is still a month left in the season to try and capitalize on this market inefficiency. The first period totals are stuck in a time warp.

The five top teams hitting at better than 67.7% are the Lightning, Sharks, Blackhawks, Penguins and Jackets. If that continues, anything under 2-1 odds is value. However, instead of betting it flat, we’re going to “key” or “wheel” one team in a series of “two game parlays”, much like we do in our baseball parlay strategy for anyone that has seen that. We’re still going to risk the same 2 units so if the wager loses, we’re still only going to lose the same 2 units.

Here are today’s wagers with Columbus/Pittsburgh over 1½ -175 being the “key” game.

3 parlays are as follows:

Columbus/Pittsburgh over 1½ -175

Buffalo/Chicago over 1½ -160

(Risking 0.7 units to win 1.08 units)

 

Columbus/Pittsburgh over 1½ -175

Calgary/Arizona over 1½ -125

(Risking 0.7 units to win 1.28 units)

 

Columbus/Pittsburgh over 1½ -175

Montreal/San Jose over 1½ -160

 

(Risking 0.7 units to win 1.15 units)

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TOTAL RISK is 2.1 units.

 

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Our Pick

Columbus/Pittsburgh over 1½ -175 (Risking 2.1 units - To Win: 1.20)

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