BEST LINES:  Pinnacle  o1½ -215 365 o1½ -220 SportsInteraction N/A 5DIMES o1½ 155

Posted at 11:30 AM EST.

SAN JOSE/Chicago over 1½

10:05 PM EST. 1st PERIOD ONLY. This is a first period bet only and we’re going to parlay it with others to make three, two-game parlays for 0.7 units each. The breakdown and payouts are at the bottom of this writeup.

Unfortunately, since the time of this writeup, the odds have changed dramtically, whereas we got this game at over -1½ -155 and it is now unplayable at -1½ -215 or -220. That said, we're going to be playing these daily from now on to the end of the regualr season and will post them very early and before anything else to ensure you get the best number. The bets at the bottom of this page are what we have but we will not include it in our yearly record because it is unavilable to you. Therefore, this is just an example of how we'll be playing these NHL totals.

We’re going to switch gears in the NHL and try to take advantage of a market inefficiency. From the start of the year to January, there were a bunch of teams that were having an incredible run of first-period overs. There were five teams that were hitting over 67% on first-period overs through 45 games, which is a decent enough sample size for us to pay attention to. There is no question that goal-scoring is up this year because of numerous factors that include the removal of goons from the game, the skill level of the players and the downsizing of goaltender equipment.

NHL totals for years prior to this season were always in the 5 to 5½ range but this year, rarely do we see 5½’s. It’s now 6, 6½ and we’ve even seen some 7’s but the first period total has remained the same at 1½. Next year, expect to see 2’s but there is still a month left in the season to try and capitalize on this market inefficiency. The first period totals are stuck in a time warp.

The five top teams hitting at better than 67.7% are the Lightning, Sharks, Blackhawks, Penguins and Jackets. If that continues, anything under 2-1 odds is value. However, instead of betting it flat, we’re going to “key” or “wheel” one team in a series of “two game parlays”, much like we do in our baseball parlay strategy for anyone that has seen that. We’re still going to risk the same 2 units so if the wager loses, we’re still only going to lose the same 2 units.

Here are today’s wagers with San Jose/Chicago -1½ -155 being the “key” game.

All two game parlays and all first period wagers.

San Jose/Chicago over 1½ -155

Van/Vegas over 1½ -120

(Risking 0.7 units to win 2.01 units)

San Jose/Chicago over 1½ -155

Ottawa/Florida over 1½ -145

(Risking 0.7 units to win 1.77 units)

San Jose/Chicago over 1½ -155

Columbus/Winnipeg over 1½ -130

(Risking 0.7 units to win 1.91 units)

TOTAL RISK is 2.1 units.

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