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Posted at 1:00 PM EST.

7:05 PM EST. OT included. Buffalo will make the short trip to Toronto and will be raring to go. It looks like Linus Ullmark will play again after a brilliant performance against the Pens last night. Carter Hutton is not 100% and therefore we’ll assume that Ullmark will be back between the pipes. This wager is contingent on Ullmark getting the call. If he does not, we’re pulling the plug on it.

Buffalo was +102 last night at home to Pittsburgh and beat the Pens in OT. They go from that price to this price because why? Well, there are several reasons. One, the Maple Leafs are overpriced every time they play at home. Two, the Leafs are coming off an embarrassing loss and a rebound is expected. Three, Buffalo will play the second game of back-to-backs. That “tired” angle in back-to-backs is grossly overused and insufficient. These are guys in great physical shape in the prime of their lives and fighting to get into the playoffs. Fatigue will have zero effect here.

Indeed Mike Babcock and the entire team will be livid over that 6-1 loss on Long Island Thursday night in John Tavares’ highly anticipated return to Nassau County Coliseum. If the Leafs come out flying and throw everything they have at the Sabres, it would be of no surprise. Certainly, the Leafs are capable of winning going away like they did over the Oilers last Wednesday. What the Maple Leafs are not capable of is preventing scoring chances and that’s what makes them such a big risk spotting prices like this.

Unless the Leafs score four or more, Frederik Andersen has to great for the Leafs to win. He has been on many occasions this season but he also gives up softies and he’s not great every game. The Maple Leafs already weak defense took a hit earlier this week with both Jake Gardiner and Travis Dermott landing on the rack. They join one off Toronto’s best defensive forwards on the shelf, Nazem Kadri, who is doubtful for this one. The highly publicized pickup of Jake Muzzin, as it turns out was one of the worst pickups at the deadline because he’s such a defensive liability every time he’s out there. Man, we had no idea that Muzzin was “this” bad but he is. In any case, Toronto has allowed the 29th most scoring chances against since picking up Muzzin 13 games ago and now they’re priced like they have the puck possession numbers and defense of the Bruins. They don’t and we’ll repeat that the Leafs are a massive risk because of all those high quality scoring chances they give up.

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