Montreal @ TORONTO
Montreal +160 over TORONTO

BEST LINES:  Pinnacle +159 BET 365 +160 SportsInteraction +160 5DIMES +160

Posted at 11:25 AM EST.

7:05 PM EST. OT included. We prefer to look at the analytics over the past six weeks (roughly 18-20 games) as opposed to the entire season because teams adjust, they have injuries, players get traded and frankly, what they did in October just isn’t very relevant when looking at things like value and current form. In that regard, the Maple Leafs have been consistent all season long. They’re one of the Cup favorites and they’re offensively scary when they have it going. However, the Maple Leafs are still very flawed defensively. The addition of Jake Muzzin (who the media billed as the second coming of Scott Stevens) was supposed to solidify it back there but the Maple Leafs continue to give up quality scoring chances in droves. In fact, since picking up Muzzin 11 games ago, the Leafs have actually gotten worse on the back-end by dropping from 18th in Scoring Chances Against to 28th. They also rank 28th over that span in High Danger Scoring Chances Against. A flaw that glaring does not warrant being this price against the Canadiens. It’s also worth noting than Nazem Kadri is out for the Leafs, which is getting less press than it should be. Kadri is a great player to have because he’s driven, talented, pesky as hell and does a lot of things other than provide offense. He leaves a hole up the middle that is not easily replaceable.

LEAFS23

Two weeks ago to the day, the Maple Leafs went into Montreal’s Cathedral Palace on CBC’s Hockey Night in Canada and beat the Habs 4-3 in OT. The Maple Leafs were the second best team on the ice that day by a slim margin and the game could’ve easily gone the other way too. What we know for sure is that the Habs are the vastly superior teams behind the blue-line. They rank 4th in Scoring Chances Against in the 10 game sample shown but they also rank 3rd in that same category since January 9th or over the past six weeks. Furthermore, over that same span, the Habs rank top-4 in several offensive categories too, which includes Corsi For % during five-on-five play. The Canadiens are just as big a threat and perhaps a bigger threat than Toronto for making a deep playoff run but this game is priced like the Canadiens are the Sabres. That’s not only preposterous, it’s true value. Of course the Habs can win here.

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Our Pick

Montreal +160 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.20)

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New Jersey +127 over Toronto
Vegas +124 over Nashville