Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 11:30 AM EST.
4:00 PM EST. OT included. This is strictly a fade on an angle that we’ll be focusing in on that we trust is going to bring back some nice profits. The angle is to fade teams that are on their annual “Mom or Dad’s trip” and here’s why:
The first time that teams arranged for this annual trip, it was a novelty. Everyone was excited and the players responded with strong efforts. However, the novelty has worn off and now it’s more of a hassle that takes these players completely out of routine. They have to cater to their parent, spend time with, room with and dine with. Now, think of yourself in your 20’s or early 30’s and ask yourself if you wanted to go on a road trip with your parent(s) or your buddies. When teams hit the road, they love it. It’s a chance to get away from home while staying in the finest hotels and being treated like royalty. They hang with their best friends with a lot of cash in their pockets and the last thing they want to do is bring their parent along. Again, the first time it was amazing and new. However, most of these teams are in their 5th, 6th or 7th year of doing it and the novelty has worn off. Most players see their parents as often as we do but talk to them almost every single day, just like we do. We’re seeing big time signs of teams not playing well on said trips and we’re going to try and exploit it.
A few teams have had their annual trip already this year and most of them have not played well. Toronto went 0-2 and was completely flat in their game against Florida. Calgary went 2-0 but don’t mistake it for a well played trip, as they beat Columbus 9-6 in the first game of said trip and were sloppy all night. Calgary scored nine times on 28 shots and trailed 4-1. Pittsburgh traveled to Long Island and Chicago and although they beat the Isles 2-1, the Pens mustered just 24 shots on net and won in a shootout. In the second game, they lost 6-3 to Chicago. Back in mid November, the Lightning had their dad’s trip and in the first game, Tampa beat Philadelphia, 6-5 but got outshot, 45-24. In the second game, in Nashville, the Bolts lost 3-2 and were dominated in the first two periods, getting outshot, 29-17 and out-chanced 17-4. There may be a couple of teams we missed that have had their annual trip but the point is that teams and players are distracted.
Vegas is a new team so they can only be on their second trip but almost 100% of their players have put in time with other teams so the concept is not new. We’re not going to concern ourselves with what happens here. We’re going to be fading these trips when we know about them and we’ll start with this game here.
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L.A. KINGS +117 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.34)