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Posted at 12:00 PM EST.

7:05 PM EST. Win, lose or otherwise is not the issue here. We have no idea which team is going to win but we have a big idea of where one’s money should be. The New York Islanders cannot be this ridiculous price over anyone in this league and that includes the feisty Senators.

The Islanders 18-14-3 record is all smoke and mirrors, as this team has scored on a high percentage of their scoring chances and that is simply not sustainable. At a time when most teams are generating 35 shots on net per game, the Islanders are hard pressed to register 25. The Islanders rank 28th in Scoring Chances For (SCF) but they rank 3rd in Scoring Chance Shot % (SCSH%). That simply does not correlate and we can almost guarantee that regression is coming in the Isles misleading record.

Other than Craig Anderson, the Senators got healthy over the past week with Matt Duchene, Bobby Ryan and others back in the lineup. The Sens are 2-3 over their last five games but they are creating chances and have proven to be an extremely dangerous offense. We saw a bunch of home teams flat yesterday after the break and these Islanders are coming back from a tough four-game trip through Colorado, Arizona, Vegas and finally Dallas. Beatable on its best day, the Islanders are seriously overpriced here in a big way.

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