Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 11:00 AM EST.
8:05 PM EST. Regulation only. Dallas played yesterday in Minnesota and beat the Wild 2-1 in OT while the Islanders had the day off. The Stars will now play their fifth game in eight days, third game in four days and tail end of back to backs. They also had to travel back to Dallas after being in Minnesota yesterday. The Isles, by contrast, played on Thursday in Las Vegas. The scheduling favors the Islanders but we don’t care as this is a straight fade on one of the league’s biggest imposters. We're also going to trust that Dallas has one last push in them before the break.
The Islanders keep taking back significant prices and they keep paying off, as they are 17-13-4 after 38 games. The oddsmakers are offering up the Isles at such sweet prices almost every time they play because they know they are a bunch of frauds too but man, are they ever blessed. The Isles have scored 98 goals this year, which makes them the second lowest scoring team in the East. This is a team that ranks between 16th and 24th in just about every key analytic both offensively and defensively. The Isles do not have strong goaltending but what they have had up to this point is an abundance of luck, as seen by their high PDO score, which ranks third in the league. The Islanders are scoring on a high percentage of their chances and that is simply unsustainable but that’s not the real reason we’re fading the Isles here. We’re fading the Isles because they’re coming off a game in Vegas and for the teams on the East Coast, playing in Vegas once a year is a real treat and there is a hangover effect, pointed out to us by a kind individual that shared the findings.
Vegas has played 16 home games this year and they are 11-3-2 but it is the next game that opponents may be suffering the ill-effects of what Vegas has to offer. Teams are 2-10-2 the next game after playing the Knights at T-Mobile Arena and have been outscored by a ridiculous 55-27. That’s just 14 games because two teams that have played in Vegas have not had their next game yet and one of those teams is these Islanders. Furthermore, it has not mattered if teams played the next day or had a few days off because no matter the situation, the losses have been consistent and ugly. It makes sense too because after the game, teams will either fly out the next morning or afternoon and that gives them about a 6 to 12 hour window to enjoy what Vegas has to offer. Some teams may have flown in the day before so they have had even more time. Now imagine yourself in your 20’s and being in Vegas with a boatload of cash for one night and if you can do that, you will be able to embrace the theory behind the Vegas hangover effect. These guys aren’t in their hotel rooms reading a book. The Islanders will conclude their road trip here after overachieving for 38 games and they’re coming off a game in Vegas.
Open an account today at and take advantage of their -104 style pricing on sides and totals, which is 60% better than other sportsbooks.
DALLAS -½ +120 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.40)