Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 2:35 PM EST.
7:35 PM EST. Regulation only. One could bet the Canadiens at the bargain price of -113 with OT included but we’d much rather play regulation because of the takeback. Frankly, there is just so much to like about the Habs here so let’s start with that resonating 7-1 loss to the Wild last game out to go along with Montreal’s latest results. Montreal has four wins in its last 11 games. Two of those victories came against Ottawa with single victories over Chicago and the Rangers. We’re now the beneficiaries of those poor recent results with this hugely deflated price on the Habs. See that 7-1 loss to the Wild? Montreal had 18 scoring chances and scored once while Minnesota had seven scoring chances and scored seven. For whatever reason, Claude Julien decided to give Carey Price the night off to get Antti Niemi some work and the Habs paid the price. Price will be back in goal here and in the last seven games, he has allowed three or fewer goals. He’s won four of his last five. The team is tightening up defensively, allowing just 19 shots against Ottawa and fewer than 30 shots in six of their last seven games. Price was off to a slow start but that’s how slumping starters generally turn things around – by having the team defend better and give them a few easier games. Once the goalie establishes confidence, he’ll take it from there. After six great games, Price was riding a wave of confidence that no doubt helped him stop 37 of 39 last Sunday and steal that game over Chicago. After a 7-1 loss, Montreal figures to be extremely jacked up tonight.
Montreal is dominating play and has been for weeks. Over the past month, they rank 1st in Corsi For % during five-on-five play, 4th in xGF%, 8th in penalties drawn and the high rankings in all those skill-driven statistics go on and on. However, this market sees results and so does the media. There is nothing wrong with the Canadiens other than bad luck but don’t sleep on this team, as they are a strong possession team and we now get to attack Carolina’s weak goaltending again.
We must keep attacking weak goaltending because the betting lines are not based on goaltenders. That would be like the betting line not representing the starters in baseball and we have to try and take advantage. The Hurricanes outplayed the Maple Leafs on Tuesday but lost 4-1 because they can’t score goals and their goaltending can’t prevent goals either. Carolina’s third rate players have scored two goals or less in 16 of their 29 games. Their 72 goals is by far the worst in the East and a complete disaster in this day and age when scoring is way up. Weak offense with weak goaltending means the Hurricanes decade of frustration will continue and our attack on the ‘Canes is going to be relentless until they are priced like the rancid team that they are.
Open an account today at and take advantage of their -104 style pricing on sides and totals, which is 60% better than other sportsbooks.
MONTREAL -½ +142 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.84)