Colorado @ PITTSBURGH
PITTSBURGH -½ +123 over Colorado

BEST LINES:  Pinnacle -½ +123 BET 365 -½ +110 SportsInteraction -½ +110 5DIMES -½ +110

Posted at 1:45 PM EST.

7:05 PM EST. Regulation only. This might look like a tough spot to back the Penguins, as they are mired in a brutal 3-5-2 run over their last 10 games including a 6-3 loss to these Avalanche just a week ago in Denver. Colorado is no doubt one of the hottest teams in the league, but some concerns in their underlying numbers suggest regression is coming. Most notably,the Avs are one of the most undisciplined teams in the NHL, as they are tied for third in time spent shorthanded this season. That on its own is troubling enough, but when you consider they are also converting their power-plays at league best 32.2% (the median is around 20%), their model for success is unsustainable. Colorado ranks 29th out of 31 teams in xGF during five on five play, thus revealing that they are heavily reliant on their power-play. The Avs are an outstanding young team, but they are trading at their highest value in quite some time. Meanwhile, the Pens stock is the lowest it's been in years.

As we mentioned above, on the surface, the Penguins are struggling, but there's a laundry list of reasons for that and injuries to key players have not helped. Starting goaltender, Matt Murray is on the IR and never looked right this season and captain Sidney Crosby has also missed some time. Crosby is having a very good year otherwise, as he has 15 points in his last 13 games. Unlike the Avs, the Pens are very good about staying out of the penalty box, as they are ranked second best in the league in the fewest minor penalties taken with just the Maple Leafs ahead of them in that very underrated statistic. Stay out of the box against Colorado and they become very, very beatable. When comparing these two teams 5-on-5, there is no doubt the Penguins are still the class side of this budding East/West rivalry. The Pens are just outside the top 10 in puck possession, while the Avs are 20th. When considering high quality scoring chances, the Penguins are 12th, while the Avalanche are 21st. When it comes to cashing in those high danger chances, the Pens are seventh and the Avs 12th. The is a classic buy low/sell high situation, but it just so happens it is the Penguins that are underpriced as a home favorite here.

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Our Pick

PITTSBURGH -½ +123 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.46)

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