BEST LINES:  Pinnacle -½ +176 BET 365 -½ +180 SportsInteraction -½ +180 5DIMES -½ +180

Posted at 2:30 PM EST.

7:05 PM EST. Well, this is an interesting line that looks almost too good to be true when you consider that the Bolts almost always win and the Devils have made a habit out of losing lately. Tampa has won two in a row and five of its past six while the Devils have lost five in a row and seven of their last eight. Furthermore, Tampa has beaten NJ twice this year in two tries, 8-3 and 5-2 and in case you forgot, they also quickly disposed of the Devils in last year’s first round of the playoffs in five games.

It would not be unreasonable to suggest that the Devils are sick of losing to this intruder and it would also be reasonable to assume that the Bolts might get caught feeling a little too complacent here. What’s more interesting to us, however, is why the Devils are losing so frequently after a hot start to the year, which is worth having a look at.

The Devils have scored one power-play goal over its last 23 opportunities over the past 10 games. In the first 10 games of the season, the Devils scored at least one PP goal in every game and that’s precisely why the Devils were winning early in the year and losing now so let us simplify it even more.

Special teams’ success or failures are all luck. Why were the Devils scoring on the PP early in the year and now they are not? Do you think they changed their approach? Of course not. Deflections were going in and rebounds were being buried in its first 10 games and none of that is happening now. If one looks at the breakdown of 10 games at a time over the past decades, you will consistently find wild fluctuations in penalty killing and PP play percentages for every single team.

During a penalty kill, every team forms that four-corner box and tries to keep shooters firing from the perimeter while the team on the PP tries to get it back to the point for a clear lane to the net while hoping for a rebound or deflection. It’s not rocket science and for stretches the puck will find the back of the net and for stretches it won’t. It’s not like football where coaches draw up several different schemes to attack or defend. Hockey is not nearly as complicated, as every team does the exact same thing on the penalty kill and power play and that’s why the fluctuations are so great. Thus, when a team is on a 1 for 23 run on the PP, like the Devils are right now, improvement is imminent. By contrast, when a team is hitting at a high percentage (like Colorado for instance), regression is inevitable. The Devils are absolutely in line to bury some power-play opportunities based on simple math.

Finally, the Bolts have scored 5, 5, 5, 4, 7, 6 and 4 goals respectively over their last seven victories and Tampa’s offense is simply going to stop bailing out its backup goaltender for a few games. Like power-plays, penalty killing, save and shooting percentages, scoring at that pace is not sustainable so hopefully all those “uneven” numbers or percentages will even out here and the Devils emerge victorious.

Therefore:

OT included - NEW JERSEY +117 for 1 unit.

Regulation only - NEW JERSEY -½ +180 for 1 unit. 

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