New Jersey @ WASHINGTON
New Jersey -½ +225 over WASHINGTON

BEST LINES:  Pinnacle -½ +216 BET 365 -½ +225 SportsInteraction -½ +225 5DIMES -½ +225

Posted at 4:00 PM EST.

7:05 PM EST. The Devils are 2-9-1 on the road, which is an attacking point for many but for us, we see it as an opportunity because improvement on the road is almost inevitable. Just like great bounces and high shooting percentages are unsustainable, so too is the opposite, meaning that the Devils losing so many games on the road is unsustainable. A correction to the good is forthcoming because the Devils are too competitive to keep losing on the road at the pace they are on right now. The Devils are a top-15 team in just about every category. Their chances of winning here might actually be better than Washington’s because if all things even out over time, a massive correction is coming to the Caps overall record but it will not be to the good.

The Caps have reeled off six wins in a row capped off by Monday’s 4-1 win over the Islanders. Below is the breakdown of that game:

Screen-Shot-2018-11-30-at-2-40-40-PM

Islanders had 30 scoring chances while the Caps had 19. We could show you the goals too but it’s too frustrating so we’ll refrain. Trust us when we suggest that Bob Barker could have saved two of them. The Caps were clearly the second best team on the ice but all this market sees or cares about is the final result. On paper and if you didn’t watch it, it looked like another easy win for Washington but they were chasing the Islanders around all game just like they were in victories against Detroit, Chicago, Montreal and the Rangers recently. We could show you similar charts in many of Washington’s victories this season.

The Capitals rank 23rd in Corsi For % during five-on-five play, which puts them slightly ahead of the Canucks and Red Wings but they are winning while getting outplayed almost every single game. That’s very simply not a winning model and if they weren’t so lucky, they would be taking the same amount of heat as teams that are losing frequently like Pittsburgh and Philadelphia. Washington is no better than either of those two teams except in the luck department but that model is not a sustainable one.

Therefore:

OT included - New Jersey +138 for 1 unit.

Regulation only - New Jersey -½ +225 for 1 unit. 

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Our Pick

New Jersey -½ +225 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 4.50)

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New Jersey +127 over Toronto
Vegas +124 over Nashville