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Posted at 2:15 PM EST.

7:35 PM EST. Regulation only. The Sabres are hot with six wins in a row capped off by a euphoric win over the Penguins in Pittsburgh in a game they Sabres trailed 4-1 in. There is a good feeling about the Sabres for the first time in a very long time and now, also for the first time in a very long time, they are overvalued. What those six wins in a row don’t reveal is that Buffalo was the second best team on the ice in five of them. What those six wins in a row doesn’t reveal is that Buffalo ranks 24th in scoring chances for and 18th in scoring chances against. The Sabres are winning because Carter Hutton, a career backup that was acquired to be the #1 goaltender, has been brilliant but all that means is regression in his numbers are inevitable. Buffalo is a live pooch to be sure but as a the chalk and getting outplayed constantly, they are a good fade target when they’re favored.

Goaltender Alex Lyon was called up because of injuries to Brian Elliott and Michal Neuvirth. Calvin Pickard is coming off a 6-5 overtime loss to Tampa Bay on Saturday. Pickard has a 4.60 goals-against average and .852 save percentage, so Lyon now gets a chance to make his NHL season debut and there is a bit of an overreaction here to Philadelphia starting its what---4th string goaltender? 5th stringer? 6th stringer? Does it matter? Frankly, not really. Philadelphia has been starting garbage goaltenders for the past 30 years so maybe this one will step up. It is not Lyon’s first crack at this level, as he played in 11 games last season and posted a .905 SV %.

Philadelphia is a dangerous underdog because of their ability to score goals. They rank 13th in Corsi For % during five-on-five play, which means they’re often dictating play and now they catch the inferior team here that is just a little bit too high. Sabres aren’t used to winning and therefore a sugar crash is forthcoming.

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