BEST LINES:  Pinnacle -½ +397 BET 365 -½ +400 SportsInteraction -½ +400 5DIMES -½ +400

Posted at 11:00 AM EST.

7:05 PM EST. Andrei Vasilevskiy leads the league in wins and he is third in Save Percentage, but those inflated numbers are supported by his PKSV% (Penalty Kill Save Percentage) which is a luck driven statistic. You see, Vasilevskiy tops all goaltenders with a PKSV% of .959. To give you an idea of how unsustainable that number is, the league average is about .875. If Vasilevskiy were playing at a more typical level, his SV% would be around .917. Think of that number like pitcher's xERA in baseball. When the ASV% or Average Save Percentage is much lower than the surface number, it's a great indication that regression is coming. Vasilevskiy and the Lightning have been living a charmed life so far this season, but the goods under the hood say their time is running out.

The Senators had a big chip on their shoulders before the season started, as most pundits had them pegged to be at the bottom of the table here in 2018-19. However, the Sens are not an easy out and after recent events, the, "us versus them" mentality has taken over their locker room. Ottawa responded to that viral video by pounding the Devils 7-3. That was the Sens sixth win of the season and they have picked up points in over half of their games. One of those extra time losses came to these Bolts less than a week ago and while some might use that most recent result as a reason to back the Bolts, we see this as an opportunity for the Sens to finish the job. Getting out of Ottawa is probably the best thing for that team and while the players will surely keep the work talk to a minimum, this road trip is an excellent opportunity to play some games where the spotlight is not white hot. Just as there was an overreaction to the plight of the Sens, the appeal of the Bolts is also strengthened by the returning Victor Hedman, but that allows us to take back the plucky Sens at an even greater price. Ottawa may not win here but the price, their feistiness and their ability to score some goals makes us buyers. 

Therefore:

OT included - Ottawa +400 for 1 unit.

Regulation only - Ottawa -½ +250 for 1 unit.

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