Boston @ CAROLINA
Boston -½ +175 over CAROLINA

BEST LINES:  Pinnacle -½ +174 BET 365 -½ +175 SportsInteraction -½ +175 5DIMES -½ +175

Posted at 1:00 PM EST.

7:05 PM EST. Regulation only. For baseball, oddsmakers will not release a line until the starting pitchers are confirmed. When the baseball betting line comes out, it reads like this:

Tampa Bay (Glasnow) +136

Cleveland (Bieber) -146

If one of the starters is scratched, all bets are void because the betting line is largely based on the starters. You see, the starters have the biggest impact on the outcome of games and it’s been like that forever.

We mention this because goaltenders have the biggest impact in the result of hockey games. Goaltenders have a bigger impact on the outcome of hockey games than starters do in the impact of baseball games. The team that has the goaltender that plays better wins probably close to 90% of games but oddsmakers release lines in the NHL without knowing the starters. NHL lines are not based on starting goaltenders and it’s something we can try and exploit. We could go over examples of the better goaltending winning every night in the NHL but one could look it up on their own. Last night for example, the Wild out-chanced Vancouver 25-20, outshot them 39-30 but lost 5-2 because Jacob Markstrom was better than Devan Dubnyk. This past Saturday, the Islanders and Flyers played almost dead even for 60 minutes with an equal number of scoring chances and shots but the Islanders won 6-1 because Robin Lehner had a save percentage of .957 while Brian Elliott had a save percentage of .727. Had it been reversed, the Flyers would have won 6-1.

Every single night in the NHL and in almost every single game, the goaltender that is better gets the win but that is not reflected in the betting line and we have to try take advantage, which brings us to the Bruins v Carolina.

Scott Darling makes his regular season debut tonight for the Hurricanes. Scott Darling is not the best option that Carolina has. He’s their third best option but if the ‘Canes had 10 goaltenders, Darling would be the 10th best option. He’s playing only because he’s getting paid. Of the 69 qualified goaltenders in the NHL last season, Darling ranked 69th in Goals Saved Above Average (GSAA). His Quality SV% was .350, which ranked 77th out of 79 qualified goaltenders. Now he’s a step behind the rest of the league before he even plays a minute. If hockey was priced like baseball, Jaroslav Halak would or should be -240 over Scott Darling and that’s all you need to know about this one. Boston’s chances of winning here are far greater than Carolina’s based on the goaltending matchup and so we are playing Boston - ½ in regulation for the full 2 units.

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Our Pick

Boston -½ +175 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.50)

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Chicago +167 over Ottawa