Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 3:30 PM EST
NHL 2018/19. This season our approach is going to be a little different than regular readers are accustomed to. Whenever we’re playing an underdog, the bet will be split into two parts. We’re playing the underdog -½ +money for 1 unit and we’ll also play them with OT included for 1 unit. The take-backs are so high and offer so much value that over time, playing this way will benefit us.
The Ducks are 3-0 to open the year while the Coyotes are 0-2 and that once again provides us with a great opportunity to get behind a very live underdog. We cannot overstate enough how important is to play ingredients in this sport and not results. On paper, the Ducks look like a force to reckon with early on because of their 3-0 record but the only force on that squad is goaltender John Gibson. In fact, no team has worse puck possession numbers than Anaheim over the first three games of the year. Of te 17 teams that have played three games or more, Anaheim ranks dead last in Corsi For % during 5-on-5 play. If you include all games and all teams, they rank 29th out of 31 teams. The Ducks have been outplayed in 11 of the 12 periods they have played thus far. They were out-chanced by San Jose 31-10 (!) but won 5-2. They were out-chanced by this same Arizona squad two days later by a count of 29-14 (!) but won 1-0 and finally, the Ducks were also out-chanced by Detroit on Sunday, 28-26, but won 3-2 in OT. John Gibson is 3-0 but the team heb is goaltending for should be 0-3 because no team has been worse in the early going.
Meanwhile, the Coyotes have dominated both games they have been in and are 0-2. Arizona has been a possession monster after two games against Dallas and Anaheim respectively and literally have nothing to show for it, as they have zero goals on 71 shots on net. Hockey is an incredibly luck-driven sport that comes down to goaltending, save percentage, and deflections. What we have here is a massive market misconception and a nice take-back on the better team. While Gibson is a hurdle that the ‘Yotes will have to overcome, they, too, have one of the league’s best goaltenders that Anaheim will have to overcome. Big time overlay here.
OT included - Arizona +140 for 1 unit.
Regulation only Arizona -½ + 225 for 1 unit.
Also, just like in baseball and every sport, there is a great chance will be adding a bunch of late add-ons to our slate of games after dinner and we’ll be sure to tweet them out when we do.
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Arizona -½ +225 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 4.50)