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Washington +116 over VEGAS

Posted May 25 before Game 1

First game puck drop – Monday May 28 @ 8:00 PM EST.

Monday, 8:05 PM EST. If you want a breakdown of the series, you can read all about it at a million different places and if we were to write one too, it would just be redundant. It is without question one of the Stanley Cup’s most unlikeliest matchups ever, as the Caps were supposed to be regressing and Vegas, well, that story has been told millions of times. The Golden Knights' ascent is a boon for the sport's visibility, and the roster is filled with players who were often overlooked, but persisted to work hard and bide their time to make it here. Apparently, the hockey gods like that very much. Or maybe the hockey gods, through a series of odd bounces and good fortune, decided that the torture is over for the Capitals and Ovechkin. Either way, we’re going to find out real soon which team is luckier and which goaltender will play better because those are the two top factors (luck and goaltending) that decide hockey games. There is not a person on the planet that can predict which team will get the bounces but there are some reasons to lean strongly to the Capitals.

Washington’s path here was much tougher and they faced adversity several times. They had to overcome a 0-2 first round deficit to Columbus after losing the first two games at home. They rallied to win four straight. Next came the Penguins, a team loaded with offense and experience that the Caps could never get by previously. After losing Game 1, the Caps rallied to win that series in six games. Next up was the Cup favorite, the Lightning, with even more offensive power than the Penguins and the Caps outplayed Tampa Bay every single game on their way to a series victory in seven games. Most impressive was that Washington was down 3-2 against Tampa. After containing perhaps the two best lines in the NHL in the previous two series, Washington is not facing a more difficult top line here. The Golden Knights' top three scorers, and their only scorers in double digits, are all found on their top line: Jonathan Marchessault (eight goals, 10 assists), Reilly Smith (two goals, 14 assists) and William Karlsson (six goals, seven assists).

The Golden Knights path to the Cup Finals was not nearly as difficult. In Round One, they blew past a weak, slow, and offensively challenged Los Angeles team in four games. In Round Two, Vegas opened up against San Jose with a resonating 7-0 victory but then proceeded to get outplayed in more periods than not the rest of way. Martin Jones was extremely shaky on several goals and Vegas would go onto win that series in six games. Then came the Winnipeg Jets. Vegas would lose Game 1 of that series but would go onto win the next four games, thus taking the Jets out in five games. Winnipeg also outplayed the Golden Knights or had a clear edge in possession numbers but Marc Andre Fleury stonewalled Winnipeg and the Jets turned into a frustrated team. To us, Winnipeg never attempted to make the Knights uncomfortable. There was no nastiness from the Jets at all. For such a big and physical team, they had an opportunity to impose their will and make the Golden Knights very uncomfortable but failed miserably in that department. It’s almost as if the Jets got caught up in the Knights fairy-tale season and were playing not to lose instead of being the aggressive and physical team that took out Nashville in seven games and everyone else they played in less. Coach Barry Trotz does not have the talent that Winnipeg has but he has the toughness and size to get nasty and take the Knights out of their comfort zone. Guaranteed, the Caps are not going to sit back and be in awe of the Golden Knights like Winnipeg was. Nobody has even tried to make the Golden Knights uncomfortable in these playoffs and we’re suggesting that’s about to change.

Don’t get us wrong. The Golden Knights absolutely deserve to be here, as they have ridden a massive wave of momentum from opening night all the way to the finals. They have legitimately dominated teams, especially on their home ice, and have put together a strategy and collection of players that make it work. Vegas’ intensity, speed and talent is legit and Marc Andre Fleury is the guaranteed Conn Smythe winner should Vegas go onto win this series but don’t bet on it.

Current Capitals have faced Marc Andre Fleury dozens of times over the years. If anyone knows his weaknesses, it would be the Capitals. Furthermore, if we’re playing value, Washington is 100% the value play here, as sportsbooks are exposed to losing millions if Vegas were to win the Cup. That has created a situation in which the books are trying to entice Washington money in an attempt to “balance the books”. To do that, they have hung an inflated price on Vegas, thus creating great value on the underdog here. Perhaps overlooked in all of this is that Washington has a standout goaltender of its own in Braden Holtby, who frustrated the Penguins and then the high flying Bolts. In seven games v TB, Holtby allowed 15 goals against. He’s been brilliant and we’re 100% behind him to perform better than Marc Andre Fleury. The Capitals have everybody back and have shown they can handle significant absences, whether it's due to injury (Burakovsky, Backstrom) or suspension (Wilson). In the end, we once again turn to pure value and in that regard, we trust we’re getting the better talent, the better goaltending, the best PP in the league, the team with the best defenseman in the series in John Carlson and we’re getting a price to boot. It wasn’t a tough decision.

Please note: We have leans posted daily on Twitter and you can follow us there for leans, possible late plays or any other info we might have to pass along. 

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