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Game 1 - posted at 10:45 AM EST.

7:05 PM EST. OT included. While Wiarton Willie is counted upon to be Canada's foremost weather prognosticator, it might be more prudent to wait until the Penguins clash with the Capitals in the NHL playoffs before declaring whether or not spring has sprung. For the third straight season and fourth time overall in the Crosby/Ovechkin era, these two teams will have to battle one another on their way to Stanley Cup glory. To call this a rivalry, however, would be unfair. This has been a one-sided affair with only Sidney Crosby's Penguins seeing the light at the end of the tunnel, as well as the riches that come with three Stanley Cup championships. The market has thrown shade on the Penguins since this line opened. Pittsburgh appeared to show cracks in its armor late in Round 1 against the Flyers, but that was not unexpected, as the only thing holding Philly back from contending was a competent goaltender. Even though the Flyers had to fight and claw just to get in the postseason, they were so much better than the Caps were 5-on-5. Philly ranked 19th in High Danger Scoring Chances For % (the Caps were last) and 15th in Corsi For %, which was nine positions higher than Washington. While neither stat makes the Flyers world beaters, it shows that the Penguins are underpriced and being disrespected here in Round 2 after being much larger favorites against Philadelphia. Crosby and company are taking a step down in competition here against the Caps’ skaters but not against the Caps goaltending.

During the regular season, the Pens were 5th in Corsi For % and just 29th with a PDO of 98.33, which suggests a correction may be coming in the "luck" department. It's scary to think what the Penguins are capable of if the bounces start going their way. Pittsburgh was the highest scoring team in Round 1, but many pundits are writing that effort off to Philly's poor goaltending. The Pens are also being discounted here because of the status of Matt Murray, who was not at his best in Games 5 and 6 against the Flyers, but we trust him much more than the Caps tandem of Braden Holtby and Philipp Grubauer when the chips are down simply because he’s proven to come up big when it matter most while Washington’s duo has not.

For the Capitals, the only thing that has changed this season from failed years past is that this year's squad is the weakest Alexander Ovechkin has had to hitch his legacy wagon to in quite some time. In the regular season, the Caps were a poor puck possession team ranking 24th in Corsi For %, which led to their giving up a ton of high danger scoring chances (29th-of-31 teams). We stand by our assertion that Washington has been one of the luckiest teams all season long and nothing that happened in Round 1 will get us to back off that stance.

Aside from a dominant performance at home in Game 2, the Capitals were not the better team on the ice unless they had the man advantage, which happened a lot, as the Blue Jackets could not stay out of the box. The Caps scored nine power play goals including at least one in every game against Columbus. The Jackets fed the Capitals more power plays than any other team in Round 1. Without the man-advantage markers, Washington would not have got past the Blue Jackets. The Caps were sloppy in their own right after giving Columbus four power plays per game on average. The Jackets weren't able to take advantage, but the Pens are much more disciplined and bring the league's number one PP unit into this series. Even though Washington lost the first two games against Columbus and won the final four, it actually got worse as the series went along. In Game 5, the Caps had a Corsi For % of just 42% and that dropped in Game 6 to 40% The Jackets had more high danger scoring chances (14-to-11) in 4-3 loss in Game 5 and matched the Caps (7-7) in Game 6, but dropped a misleading 6-3 decision. Further supporting the fact Washington benefited from the bounces was its PDOs of 1.033, 1.073 and 1.038 over the final three games of Round 1. Sure the Caps were unlucky in Game 2 against the Blue Jackets, but they got it back four times over to land here in Round 2. We said it in Round 1 and we’ll say it again here that the blueprint to beat the Capitals is not a difficult one. Stay out of the box and there is no f***ing way in hell that this team could beat any playoff team, let alone the Penguins. The Jackets couldn’t apply that very simple narrative but the Penguins can and will, which will once again very likely allow Pittsburgh to defeat these imposters again but this time it might be four straight. The Caps are a weak 5v5 team that will be exposed as such here.

Finally, much has been made of Evgeni Malkin being out for Game 1 and to a lesser extent Carl Hagelin being out also. Malkin and Hagelin matter but it’s not going to deter us from fading the Caps because Pittsburgh is far and away the superior team with much more depth that can dispose of Washington in a seven game series on their worst days. Malkin is very likely going to play in Game 2 and the oddsmakers have no fear of making Pittsburgh a favorite in the series despite the injuries. It is so rare to see a team the underdog in Game 1 and the favorite in the series, which applies to Pittsburgh here but more importantly,  it gives us some “reading between the lines” insight as to what the oddsmakers are trusting here. If Washington wins tonight, they instantly become favorites to win the series so why are the Caps favored tonight but an underdog in the series?

With that, we’ve been calling the Caps imposters all year long and have no fear of playing Pittsburgh to beat them in this series in six games or less at +160 instead of spotting -120. We’ll also play the Penguins in Game 1 taking back a tag. You should too.

Please note: We have leans posted daily on Twitter and you can follow us there for leans, possible late plays or any other info we might have to pass along. 

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