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Posted on Thursday April 26 before Game 1

San Jose +115 over VEGAS

Series pick – Begins Thursday, April 26

10:10 PM EST. Of all the teams in this year’s playoffs, San Jose might be the most undervalued of them all. While Vegas was sweeping the offensively challenged and slow skating Kings, the Sharkies were sweeping a team loaded with offensive firepower and that employed perhaps the best goaltender in the game in John Gibson. Gibson ranked first in high quality saves and ranked second among qualified goaltenders in Goals Saved Above Average. In terms of a more impressive first round, four-game sweep, give a massive edge to the Sharks, as there probably isn’t another team among the  15 others that would’ve swept the Ducks. Of course, one needs some bounces to get a sweep but San Jose played with the lead that entire series and if Martin Jones remains hot, this San Jose squad is going to be tough as shoe leather to dispose of. 

Next we have market perception, which has created an inflated takeback on the Sharks and that alone makes San Jose worthy of playing both in Game 1 (and probably Game 2) and in the series. Very simply, it’s preposterous that Vegas is a bigger price in the series (-140) over San Jose than they were against the Kings (-125).

While we completely respect the legit Golden Knights for what they have accomplished this season and in the first round, this is not the Kings they’ll be facing. Let’s not forget that the Knights scored a mere seven goals in the first round and won every single game by one goal with Game’s 1 and 4 both being 1-0 victories. During 5 on 5 play, L.A. had a significant edge in Game 4 and had other significant edges for stretches during the series too. In actuality and what we know about one-goal games is that Vegas could have just as easily been on the wrong end of a sweep.

Meanwhile, San Jose won the possession battle in three of the four games against Anaheim. While Vegas buried seven pucks in four games against Jonathan Quick, San Jose buried 15 pucks in its four-game sweep and won two of the four games by three goals or more. The Sharkies also had one of the best road records in the NHL this season. Additionally, San Jose has the best offensive defensemen left in the playoffs in Brent Burns and they also have the best stay at home defenseman in this series (and maybe in the entire league) in Marc-Edouard Vlasic, who will play 25-30 minutes every game. Joe Thornton could legitimately return for this series but we’re not counting on that. With or without Thornton, San Jose has experience, playoff pedigree, speed, star power, great goaltending and outstanding under-the hood numbers. One could accurately suggest that the favorite does not have a single advantage here in any area unless you want to call home-ice an advantage. That’s not enough to dispose of San Jose, who is wrongly being billed as the underdog in this series. For now, pencil us in on San Jose to win Game 1 and to win the series becauser that is very simply where all the value lies. 

Please note: We have leans posted daily on Twitter and you can follow us there for leans, possible late plays or any other info we might have to pass along. 

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