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Posted on Tuesday April 10 before Game 1

Philadelphia +214 over PITTSBURGH

Series pick – Begins Wednesday, April 11

7:00 PM EST. Regulation only. The Penguins have played a ton of hockey the last two seasons after winning back-to-back Stanley Cups. Their playoff pedigree cannot be denied. They feature two of the best players in the world and have a supporting cast that most teams would love to have in a starting role but the good times have to end eventually. Last season, the Penguins were able to fall back on a future Hall of Fame goaltender in Marc-Andre Fleury, but The Flower is now in Vegas, which leaves no safety net for the struggling Matt Murray. The Pens have been winning in spite of their inability to stop the puck after allowing 3.53 goals per game in March. Murray's GAA was 3.34 in that month and 3.50 in April, which means he is not trending in the right direction. His save percentage was .900 or worse in each of those months. Murray's health also has to be considered, as he's been often injured in his young career. The Pens rotated a pair of backups in Murray's absence this season, but neither can be expected to take the reins if called upon in these playoffs. The task of winning three straight Stanley Cups is not an easy one, as the last time it happened was during the heyday of the Islanders in the late 1970s and early 80s. The game has changed so much since then that it's hard to compare the product of today with that bygone era. The market has a short memory so the Penguins are going to be one of those teams that it thinks can be trusted, but you are no doubt going to pay a premium to back Sidney Crosby, Evegeni Malkin, et all. At the end of the day, the Penguins can score goals but they allow far too many scoring chances against and Philadelphia is precisely the type of team that can take advantage of Pittsburgh’s massive defensive shortcomings. 

While they can't match the Penguins in name brand star power, man-for-man, the Flyers are well built to compete here. Claude Giroux has been rejuvenated on the wing, Sean Couturier is finally reaching his potential and rookie Nolan Patrick has risen up the ranks to center Philly's second scoring unit. If you haven’t seen Travis Konecny play much, you are in for a treat. Add in Wayne Simmonds, Jakub Voracek and Oscar Lindblom and you start to get a sense if how dangerous the Flyers are.

The Flyers were a streaky team all season, but are on the upswing after a 7-3-1 run to end the year. However, as always, this series is going to come down to goaltending. If it were up to us, Michal Neuvirth would be starting this series between the pipes, as he gives the Flyers the best chance to win, but it's Brian Elliot ($2.5M) and the newly acquired Petr Mrazek (3.85M) that are getting paid the big bucks. Mrazek's dismal .890 save percentage in a Flyers uniform makes him very unappealing and does anybody remember how it went for Elliot during the Flames' playoff run last year? We'll put aside the Flyers' deficiencies in net for a moment, as the Pens aren't fairing much better in that department. A quick look at the forums or even Sports Interaction's betting action information (76% in favor of the Pens) it doesn't take long to see the Flyers aren't being given much of a shot here, but that is totally misguided. Although young, Philly's defense core has the fifth lowest shots against average in the league, while its offense ranks just outside the top-10. This series is far closer to a toss-up than these inflated odds would have you believe. The Flyers might be a mess in net, but they have a carousel of options to find a hot hand while the Penguins must sink or swim with their starter. The Flyers will not be intimidated by these Penguins, as these teams have had a fierce rivalry in this Giroux/Crosby era and for the first time in a very long time, Pittsburgh is extremely vulnerable while the Flyers have advantages that they have not had the luxury of before. What a great price on a team with a truly legit chance of winning.

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