Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 2:30 PM EST.
10:05 PM EST. Regulation only. If we bet the Knights in Colorado on Saturday, you can be damn sure we’re coming right back on them here because nothing has changed since Colorado pulled out a fortunate shootout win on Saturday. Thus, we’ll reiterate that the Avs are a metrics mess that has gotten very fortunate over and over this season. The luck driven stats are what is fueling this team, as they rank first in penalty killing percentage, fourth in power-play % and 3rd in PDO (save % + shooting %). We cannot overstate how fortunate the Avs are to be top four in all three luck driven stats. In Score and Venue Adjusted Corsi For % over the past five weeks, Colorado ranks 29th in the league, ahead of only Buffalo and the New York Rangers. Defensively it’s even worse, as Colorado ranks 30th over those same 14 games in 5-on-5 Score and Venue Adjusted Corsi Against/60. That puts them ahead of only the Senators over that span. In xGF/60 and xGA/60 over the past five weeks during 5-on-5 play, Colorado ranks 29th and 25th respectively. It’s not just the past five weeks either. Colorado’s metrics all season have been bottom five at both ends of the ice. They should be in the same points range as Ottawa, Rangers, Islanders and Buffalo, four other teams that are all a metrics mess.
By contrast, the Knights have been strong in all key metrics for the entire season at both ends. Vegas was in a bit of a funk for a few games but they looked extremely sharp in the last half of the game Saturday and a couple of games prior to that as well. Here’s the kicker……T-Mobile Arena in Vegas has proven to be one of the most difficult places to play at for the opposition to emerge with a win. The city has embraced this franchise in a way that even exceeded the most optimistic among us. The city has gone nuts over Vegas and tonight, with a win, Vegas will clinch a playoff spot. We cannot overstate the electricity that will be flowing throughout that arena and the performance by the Golden Knights will match it. If you make one bet today, this probably should be it.
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VEGAS -½ +101 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.02)