Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 1:00 PM EST.
8:35 PM EST. Regulation only. Betting on hockey can drive one nuts but it’s not such a bad thing because the misleading results lead to some great prices. They don’t always work out, like with Detroit being +150 over Washington last night and losing 1-0 despite dominating the game and limiting the Caps to three dangerous scoring chances. That’s just one example of how misleading results will influence future prices and this is another great example of past results heavily influencing current prices.
Dallas has lost six straight. The local media is now pointing a finger at its leader, Jamie Benn. This is from today’s local coverage of Dallas in that region:
“How much of the Stars’ recent swoon is on their leadership?
Jamie Benn’s performance as captain is discussed.
On social media, this is from a beat reporter:
If Stars miss the playoffs, one significant issue of discussion will revolve around Jamie Benn
Do you see how misleading results impact everything? The Stars are playing great hockey without the results. Dallas ranks 4th in xGA/60 during 5v5 play over the past five weeks. That puts them ahead of teams like Winnipeg and Nashville but all the NHL media wants to discuss is how great the Preds are because they’ve won 14 of 16 games. The Stars also rank 5th in the league in High Danger Scoring Chances Against over the past five weeks. During this current six-game losing streak, the Stars lost by one at Washington, gave up an empty-net goal in Winnipeg, took overtime losses in Ottawa and Toronto, had a 1-0 lead over Montreal, outshot the Habs, 39-26 and lost 4-2. They had a lead in each of those five games so they were one save away or a big save away from being 5-1 over that span instead of 0-6.
Dallas has been playing with a ton of energy while working hard on every shift and hard work pays off. If this was the middle of the season, the media wouldn’t be losing their shit over this losing streak but because it has come at the worst possible time, it’s hugely magnified. We get the benefit of that in this bargain basement price on the Stars at home.
The Bruins are coming off a playoff-clinching win over the Blue Notes in St. Louis. What’s left now for Boston is the playoffs and getting healthy. Although a playoff spot was just a formality, it still had to give them a sense of accomplishment and there could be a bit of a letdown here against a non-rival from the West. The B’s have so much more to worry about than this game, as they enter it minus so many regulars that are either out or very questionable for this game.
In summarizing, we’re getting the Starts at home at a bargain price because of a very misleading six-game losing streak. We also get the team Captain, Jamie Benn, likely playing with a chip on his shoulder because of all the negative reviews thrown his way the past 24 hours or the local media pointing a finger his way. Jamie’s teammates absolutely love him and they’ll go to battle for him too. Meanwhile, the B’s come into this one complacent and very much banged up. Lay the 15 or 16 cents if you like because it’s the bargain of the day but we’ll spot the half puck and take back 40 cents in what is also a bargain.
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Open an account today at Pinnacle Sports and take advantage of their -104 style pricing on sides and totals, which is 60% better than other sportsbooks.
DALLAS -½ +145 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.90)