Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 11:40 AM EST.
4:05 PM EST. We hate to kick a Knight when it’s down but the Vegas Golden Knights are having a tough time finding their mojo again. Vegas has lost four straight at home and has given up four goals or more in all of them. Their last home win came against Vancouver but it’s more than just that. Vegas very simply peaked way too early. They rode a huge wave of momentum and emotion into a tremendous season and while they deserved everything they earned, they were never as good as that incredible record suggested. They are now finding out that winning in this league isn’t as easy as they made it out to be. That early success may turn out to be the worst thing for this team, as they fight through adversity for the first time. It’s no coincidence that as soon as they made some moves at the trade deadline (even the GM was influenced into thinking they could win it all), things started to head south. Since the trade deadline on Feb 26, the Knights have played 10 games and rank 25th and 22nd respectively in Expected Goals For and Expected Goals Against during 5v5 play. Being in a funk is hard to snap out of but now you take a team that overachieved to a high degree for almost five months and whose emotional levels were drained from that high intensity for five months and we’re now seeing the results of that. Vegas could get it back but this is not the team one wants to play when in a funk.
Calgary is an analytics monster. They have been leading the NHL in 5v5 Score and Venue Adjusted Corsi For % for weeks. Calgary’s 68.44 Corsi For/60 over the past five weeks crushes most of the field and is ahead of teams like Nashville, Winnipeg and Boston. Calgary’s 7-4 loss to the Sharkies on Friday is misleading and underserving, as they played well enough to win but their goaltender was garbage. Once again, we get the advantage of a market that sees wins and losses only and 7-4 is a blowout loss. You would be hard pressed to find a team playing better than Calgary right now in terms of dominating play and creating chances. If they get adequate goaltending here, they’ll very likely win and now that Mike Smith has had three games back since he was injured, the risk is worth the reward. We’re getting a great team here playing at a very high level at a great price in a game they should win. Big overlay here.
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Calgary +136 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.72)