Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 1:35 PM EST.
7:30 PM EST. The market perception is that the Senators cannot wait to hit the links and be done with what has been a miserable season. While that may be true, NHLers are a different breed, and we have no doubt the Sens will continue to fight and provide value down the stretch. Ottawa has won just two of its last 10 games but three of those defeats came in extra time while five others were by just one goal. That’s plenty of recent outcomes that could have bounced the Sens way. The Sens have been priced in this range twice over their last 10 contests and came away with victories at Dallas and Vegas. As if their current standing wasn't enough, the Sens appeal is likely to be lessened further by the absence of Mark Stone, who will be out of the lineup after suffering a leg injury against the Flames last Friday night. We like that Florida is fighting for their playoff lives, thus giving Ottawa an opportunity to make life miserable for them, a role that all teams not going to the playoffs embrace.
The Panthers have been one of the hottest teams in the second half after just four losses in their last 19 games. Signature wins over Pittsburgh, Washington and Toronto all show Florida is for real. However, there is no doubt this once under the radar value play is now one of the most overpriced teams in the NHL. Sure the wins are coming, but the Panthers give up way too many shots. Last game against a Rangers squad in full rebuild mode, Florida was outshot but on the right side of a 4-3 shootout decision. If you were holding a ticket with the Panthers spotting more than 2-1, you were in a bad situation in what was a virtual coin-flip. That is why we stress playing value at every turn and letting the chips fall where they may. So much of what happens on the ice is luck based, which is why you cannot pay a premium when making your plays. Six weeks ago when Roberto Luongo was still on the rack, the Panthers being priced in this range would’ve been considered absurd. Well, we’re here to suggest that it is still absurd. In addition to getting outshot by the Rags, the Panthers have been outshot by the Canadiens, Flyers, Devils, Maple Leafs, Penguins and Capitals over their last 10 games, eight of which by the way were played on home ice. Yeah, we like Florida and have said so since October but we have no loyalties to any team and now that their stock is through the roof, we’re selling,
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Ottawa +196 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.92)