Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 2:30 PM EST.
9:05 PM EST. OT included. We have no idea who is going to win this game but we know for sure that the Oilers are not good enough to be favored in this range. It is for that simple reason that when they are, they must be faded and we make no exceptions here. Edmonton ranks 29th and 29th out of 31 teams in 5v5 Score and Venue Adjusted Corsi Against/60 and High Danger Scoring Chances Against respectively over the past five weeks. We might be able to overlook the Oilers defensive woes if they had quality or consistent goaltending to compensate but they don’t. Cam Talbot Talbot has lost three games in a row and has a 3.12 goals-against average and .903 save percentage. He ranks 62 out of 66 qualified goaltenders in GSAA while Arizona’s goaltender, Antti Raanta ranks 51 positions higher in 11th place in GSAA.
For the Oilers weak defense, Adam Larsson is still out. The Oilers have also allowed the most shots on net against in the league during 5v5 play over the past five weeks. They’re priced in this range not because they’re good and not because they’re playing well but because the market perception on the Coyotes is that they’re a weak team. Arizona is not a bad team at all. A horrible start to the year put a black cloud over their heads that they couldn’t shake for three months. However, once January rolled around, things started to turn to the good for the Yotes. It may surprise you to learn that Arizona has picked up points in 16 of 23 games since January 4. They have cut down on scoring chances against and they are ranked 15th in 5v5 Score and Venue Adjusted Corsi For % over the past five weeks. The ‘Yotes have better goaltending than Edmonton, they’re in a better state of mind and they’re in better form with better analytics and yet they’re priced like they’re playing in Columbus. In fact, the Coyotes have been priced in this range in Los Angeles recently and were priced lower (+135) in Colorado. One of two things can be concluded, which is that the Yotes are much undervalued or that Edmonton is much overvalued. Either way, the dog is the value play here against a sloppy, underachieving, badly coached team that can’t wait for this season to end.
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Arizona +144 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.88)