Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 1:45 PM EST.
7:05 PM EST. OT included. We faded the Flyers in Arizona on Friday night and then backed them on Sunday in Vegas. The Flyers were the chalk in Arizona and won and they were the dog in Vegas and won that one too. The point is that the Flyers are a risky favorite but are good enough to get behind when being offered a price. In Arizona, they won 4-3 in OT and in Vegas they won 4-1 but got outshot 38-19 (see, we win those too from time to time). That undeserving win in Vegas to run Philadelphia’s winning streak to four has its stock a little too high here. Philadelphia’s four wins occurred against Carolina, Montreal, Arizona and Vegas and again, the one in Vegas was undeserved. Prior to winning four in a row, the Flyers lost four in a row, which included a loss to Ottawa and New Jersey. The Flyers are streaky but vulnerable. They are a team on the playoff bubble, which is precisely about where they should be. They’re neither much superior nor inferior to the Devils but the price here does not reflect how evenly matched these two are. In terms of situational spots, the Devils may have the edge, as Philly returns home from a two-game trip through the deserts of Vegas and Arizona while the Devils played in Boston on Sunday.
New Jersey has dropped four in a row so their stock is lower than it should be and will likely remain low until #1 goaltender Cory Schneider gets back. For now, we’ll have to live with Keith Kinkaid but that only increases the prices on the Devils. Besides, Philadelphia’s goaltending is shaky too. That said, the Devils played a beautiful road game in Boston but were on the unlucky end of a 5-3 loss. They drew seven (!) penalties in Boston but went 0-7 on the PP, which is just plain unlucky. They outshot the B’s 38-27. The Devils have outshot four of their past five opponents. That includes outshooting the Pens 38-16 in a 3-1 victory. The Devils rank ahead of the Flyers in many key under the hood stats on both sides of center. The Devils are more balanced, they’re in a better spot and they’re actually playing well but this market sees one team on a four-game losing streak and the other on a four-game winning streak. Those “streaks” and wrong market perception provides us with this great opportunity once again.
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New Jersey +136 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.72)