Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 11:30 AM EST.
8:05 PM EST. OT included. A beat reporter that covers the Flyers and works for The Inquirer wrote this about the Coyotes this morning:
“For the Flyers, this is a chance at payback as they face the NHL’s worst team. The Coyotes scored a 4-3 overtime win Oct. 30 over the host Flyers for their first win of the season. They had been 0-10-1. How bad have the Coyotes been this season? They have scored the second-fewest amount of goals in the NHL and allowed the second-most goals. And they have a league-worst minus-63 goal differential”.
What he wrote is something you will read often by the opposition’s beat reporters because all they do is look up won/loss records, goals for and against and a few other meaningless stats to form an opinion based on results or what they read and hear everywhere else. These beat reporters know a lot about the team they’re covering and only see the opposition play whenever they play “their team”. Do you really believe that this beat reporter has seen the Coyotes play even one time since that game in Philly back in late October? Likely not and if so, it has been one time or a few minutes here and there. We point that out because it’s a reflection of the market. ESPN has power ratings that are embarrassing to that outfit. Beat reporters write “safe” things about the opposition when they know nothing about them other than what they read or see in stats and standings. Before we discuss the Coyotes, we’ll point out that the Flyers are a pedestrian bunch with pedestrian numbers and weak goaltending. They have some great players and one great line but they are beatable every time they take the ice.
Arizona is so much better than its overall record. They have lost an entire slew of games this season with third and fourth string goaltenders being forced into action. Annti Raanta has played just 30 of the teams’ 54 games. Raanta has a .914 save percentage, which puts him .04 percentage points behind Sergei Bobrovsky. Raanta is clearly the superior goaltender here over Brian Elliott, who ranks 53rd in save % and 48th in Goals Saved Above Average. More importantly, the Coyotes metrics are strongly trending in the right direction. In fact, Arizona ranks 7th and 8th respectively in 5v5 Score and Venue Adjusted Corsi For % and Corsi Against per 60 minutes over its last 10 games. Metrics wise, that puts the Coyotes in the Vegas, Preds and Hurricanes range over all teams past 10 games. The Coyotes early numbers are not close to being a reflection of who they truly are and now we’re the beneficiaries of that. Market perception allows us to take this team at home as a pooch when in fact they’re playing well enough to be favored against bubble teams like the Flyers.
Open an account today at Pinnacle Sports and take advantage of their -104 style pricing on sides and totals, which is 60% better than other sportsbooks.
ARIZONA +115 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.30)