Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 11:45 AM EST.
1:05 PM EST. OT included. Montreal beat Anaheim yesterday 5-2 but the Habs were outshot 45-29 and also scored three PP goals and four early goals to put the Ducks in a big hole that they could not dig out of. The Ducks had 27 scoring chances to the Canadiens 12. Prior to that, Montreal had lost to Carolina and St. Louis while scoring one goal in those two games combined. Missing Jonathan Drouin, Andrew Shaw, Phillip Danault and Shea Weber today, Montreal cannot be favored in this range over anyone. We like to look at analytics in segments as opposed to the season because it gives us a clearer picture of current form and it is a more accurate account of what to expect. Montreal was actually a good possession team in October but injuries, a lack of focus and confidence and the fact that the opposition can study film on them has turned that around completely. Over its past 15 games, Montreal ranks 25th in 5v5 Score and Venue Adjusted Corsi For % and 23rd in Corsi Against/60 over that sam span. Montreal has ugly numbers across the board and Carey Price has been absolutely ordinary the entire season.
We’re not going to sugarcoat this by saying the Senators are in better shape than Montreal because they’re not. In fact, Ottawa’s metrics are worse in just about every key category but it’s not Ottawa that’s spotting a big price here. What we know for sure is that he Sens have the best puck-moving defenseman in this game that will play close to 30 minutes. Ottawa also beat Anaheim recently (first game back from the All-Star break) but Ottawa’s win over Anaheim was truly legit while Montreal’s yesterday was luck driven. The Send also beat Philadelphia yesterday in OT but had a 3-1 lead with less than six minutes to go in the third. The Senators have been a streaky team for years. We have seen them use momentum to go on some massive runs and now they’ve won two straight coming off the break and winning does wonders for a teams’ psyche. Of course the Sens can lose here but that’s not our concern. This one is all about taking back a big price against a vulnerable Montreal squad that is just as likely to lose and they are to win against teams below them in the standing. Lastly, Ottawa will go with Mike Condon in net, which this market believes is a downgrade from Craig Anderson. That, too, has this price even more inflated.
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Ottawa +153 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.06)