Posted Friday at 4:00pm EST and odds are subject to change.

NFL Week: 11

What you see below is our early leans. Many of the selections below will stay the same and some will be moved into official plays with wagers on Sunday. However, there is also the possibility that we see, read or get a sense that something is not right with one of our selections and change our pick. There are several different criteria we use to grade a game and make it an official play and a lot of things can happen or change between Friday and Sunday. We’ll have all write-ups (except Monday Night Football) posted on Friday but our actual wagers won’t be posted until Sunday morning between 10 AM and 12:00 PM EST

Sunday, November 2

NFL Week 11

Green Bay -7½ over N.Y. Giants

1:00 PM ET. This is one of those lines the market hates but the matchup absolutely demands. Everyone remembers the Giants shocking the Packers in London as a +7½ pooch in 2022, then doing it again last year as a +5½ home dog. Recency bias bleeds slowly, and the books know it. That’s why you're seeing reluctance to price the Giants properly — as a bottom-five roster with a backup QB, an interim coach, and a talent pool held together with duct tape and prayer.

The Giants have dropped four straight, fired Brian Daboll on Monday, and blew a 20-10 fourth-quarter lead in Chicago once Jaxson Dart left with a concussion. With today’s protocol, the idea of Dart clearing in time is fantasy. And even if he does, do you really want a rookie coming off multiple hard shots walking into Micah Parsons & Co.? This is the same defense that’s been hunting quarterbacks like it’s ritual sport.

The fallback plan isn’t much safer. Russell Wilson took over after Dart went down, and the Giants’ next three drives produced seven total yards. Earlier this year with Wilson starting, the offense didn’t find the end zone against Kansas City or Washington — and that was with Cam Skattebo, Malik Nabers, and Darius Slayton all healthy, plus an actual head coach. Those guys are now hurt, unavailable, or ineffective. What’s left is a skeleton crew expected to keep pace with Jordan Love and Green Bay’s offense? That’s not happening.

Green Bay hasn’t been a covering machine — failing to cash in six of its last seven — but that’s exactly why the price is cheap. Monday’s loss to Philadelphia is masking the reality: the Packers are still structured to beat up on bad quarterbacks and overmatched lines. Wink Martindale’s defense can scratch and claw only so long before the field position battle caves in.

The total sits in the mid-40s, and it’s difficult to imagine where New York contributes enough to threaten it. If the Giants can’t score, the favorite covers — and covers comfortably. Recommendation: Green Bay -7½

Cincinnati +6½ over Pittsburgh

1:00 PM ET. This line is pure fantasy — a number hung as if Pittsburgh is some reliable, margin-winning operation instead of a team that’s dropped three of four and just got handled on Sunday night. The market keeps treating the Steelers like a heavyweight when they haven’t knocked out anybody all year.

The underdog has covered four straight in this rivalry. Earlier this season Cincinnati closed +5½ at home, hung 33 points, and beat Pittsburgh 33-31 behind Joe Flacco throwing for 342 yards and Chase Brown ripping off 108 yards on 11 carries. That wasn’t a fluke. Pittsburgh’s defense has been living off name value for two seasons and coordinators have figured out how to stress them horizontally.

Now we’re catching nearly a touchdown with the exact same matchup? Wrong team inflated, wrong number.

Cincinnati comes out of the bye with a pulse and, more importantly, with motivation. Jay Glazer reported Joe Burrow is ahead of schedule and could return in about two weeks. The locker room knows it. A win here puts Cincinnati just one game back in the AFC North. There’s plenty of oxygen left for a late-season charge if they hold serve.

The problem — and it’s a big one — is the Bengals’ defense. Trey Hendrickson still isn’t practicing, they’re bottom-five in sack rate, and they couldn’t touch Aaron Rodgers in the first meeting. The blueprint for disrupting Rodgers is out there — the Chargers just executed it perfectly — but Cincinnati does not have the personnel to replicate it.

Which means this almost certainly becomes the same script as October:

You’re not stopping Pittsburgh — you’re out-scoring them.

The over is 4-0-1 in Cincinnati’s last five games for a reason. Their defense is optional and their offense, when allowed to play with tempo, is plenty capable of trading blows. Flacco can sling it, Brown can run it, and the Bengals’ wideout group is deep enough to stress a Steelers secondary that has been torched repeatedly this year.

Pittsburgh shouldn’t be spotting 6½ to almost anybody right now, let alone a divisional opponent with a history of giving them fits. Recommendation: Cincinnati +6½

Tennessee +6 over Houston

1:00 PM ET. The market is pricing this like Tennessee is already eliminated from the league, never mind the playoff race. Houston has earned the right to be respected — 5-1 SU/ATS in the last six meetings, including that 26-0 beatdown in Week 4 — but this number is inflated because everyone remembers the score and not the game.

Houston didn’t reach the end zone until the fourth quarter in that matchup. The box score says “26-0.” The film says “ugly rock fight where Tennessee’s offense couldn’t execute anything.” Cam Ward threw for 108 yards on 10-of-26 passing, the Titans managed 175 total yards and 10 first downs, and yet the Texans didn’t exactly run away with it until garbage time. That’s important context — it means this is not some unstoppable mismatch; it’s a struggling rookie QB versus a top-10 defense that capitalized on a perfect script.

Now the market wants you to believe Houston should lay nearly a full touchdown on the road. That’s a different universe than catching Tennessee in a freefall at home.

The Titans come out of the bye with one advantage: rest and prep. Are they suddenly “good”? No. But these are the pockets where bad teams punch above their weight — especially at home, where Tennessee has been a disaster (1-11 SU/ATS since last year), but where you do get an inflated line because the market has completely quit on them. That’s where we buy ugly.

Houston’s offense looked sharp with Davis Mills in relief (412 yards, 27 first downs, 6.0 YPP against Jacksonville), but let’s not pretend consistency has ever been Mills’ calling card. If CJ Stroud is ruled in, you’ll see this number balloon. If he’s out again, Mills’ stock drops instantly. Either way, the Texans as road chalk is not a profile we’re rushing to lay.

Tennessee’s defense has been leaking oil — their last three games all went over because opponents hung 32 points per game on them — but you don’t need a Titans win. You just need them to not get blown off their own field after two weeks to reset. Bad teams off a bye are often undervalued because the public assumes “nothing changes.” In reality, small structural tweaks make them incrementally more competitive, and that’s all we need.

Cam Ward will still look like a rookie. The reinforcements aren’t walking through that door. The interim staff isn’t coaching for their jobs; they’re coaching for their résumés. Yet somehow, this is exactly the kind of spot where the ugly dog bites. 

Seattle +3 over LA Rams

4:05 PM ET. The market keeps waiting for the Sam Darnold pumpkin moment, but all he keeps doing is slicing secondaries like a vegetable chef on speed. Seattle has won-and-covered every road game they’ve played, they’ve won-and-covered four straight overall, and they’re catching a field goal against a team on equal footing. That’s value. That’s actionable. That’s a bet.

The Rams have covered eight of the last nine in this rivalry, and that trend is getting blasted everywhere this week — but peel back the layers and the matchup is much tighter than those ATS records suggest. These meetings have been trench wars, not track meets. Take away last year’s meaningless Week 18, and four straight stayed under, including two trips to overtime that STILL didn’t hit the number. When games play this tight, the points matter — especially when you’re catching the better situational side.

Let’s get to the meat:

- Seattle travels extremely well.

4–0 ATS on the road. No luck, no fluke — their offensive structure doesn’t shrink outdoors or indoors, and the defense has been far more disciplined away from home.

- Darnold is not regressing — he’s ascending.

He’s No. 1 in QBR, No. 1 in passing success rate, top-3 in completion percentage and passer rating, and he leads the NFL at 9.9 yards per attempt. That’s a full yard ahead of No. 2 (Drake Maye). These aren’t helium numbers inflated by YAC merchants. Seattle is scheming explosives, creating layups, and converting both.

Two losses all year — both blown inside two minutes. Seattle has played 480 minutes of football and trailed for maybe 20 of them.

- The Rams are good… but not at this price.

They’ve played sharp, they’re well-coached, and last week’s win over San Francisco was legit. But this is a different kind of test. Seattle’s offensive balance destroys teams that rely on front-four pressure, and LA’s depth has already taken hits.

- When two teams look equal, grab the better quarterback in the better form.

That’s Darnold. Yes, you read that correctly, and yes, the numbers back it up.

With both teams on a heater, the public does the obvious thing — they default to the home favorite. Not us. We’re backing the more explosive offense, the cleaner quarterback play, and the road team that has punched above its weight in every venue they’ve walked into. Recommendation: Seattle +3

Cleveland +7½ over Baltimore

4:25 PM ET. This number is inflated, and it’s inflated for all the wrong reasons. Baltimore is getting priced as if last week’s win over Minnesota was a vintage Lamar masterpiece. It wasn’t even close. The Ravens generated 14 first downs the last time these teams met, lived off two Cleveland turnovers (including a scoop-and-score), and still got out-gained by 80 yards. The scoreboard said 41-17 — the box score said “fraudulent result.” When you see that kind of disconnect, you file it away, and when the market hands you +7.5 in the rematch, you attack.

Baltimore has won-and-covered three straight, so the public is lining up. Cleveland has dropped five of six and looks broken offensively, so the public is sprinting the other way. That’s usually where value lives. The Browns’ defense remains absolutely elite — New York managed 12 first downs last week and basically needed two special-teams touchdowns in the first quarter just to look functional. Remove the fluky stuff and the Browns’ defensive profile still travels, still smothers, and still forces long fields.

Lamar Jackson remains the wildcard, and not in a good way. His hamstring recovery isn’t where the market thinks it is. He averaged 4.0 yards per carry and 6.1 yards per attempt against Minnesota despite the benefit of extra rest. That’s not a fully mobile Lamar — that’s a limited version walking into an AFC North street fight against one of the league’s most aggressive fronts.

Cleveland’s offense is the obvious sore spot, but Gabriel doesn’t have to be good — he just has to not lose the game. As long as the Browns avoid the catastrophe plays that buried them in Week 2, they’re live within this number. Defenses have loaded the box on Quinshon Judkins all month because they don’t respect Gabriel’s arm, but that’s baked into the current line. We’re not being asked to win — we’re being asked to stay inside a margin that Baltimore hasn’t earned. Recommendation: Cleveland +7½

Detroit +2½ over Philadelphia

8:15 PM ET. Philadelphia has ripped off three straight wins, looks shiny in the standings, and Lincoln Financial Field has been a tough place to walk into since last season. That’s the surface-level handicap — the one books know the public will lean on. But peel back one layer and the cracks show fast. The Eagles’ offense is running 7.5 fewer plays per game than last year, their O-line is an injury carousel (Jurgens out, Lane Johnson carted off), and they’re being priced as if those issues don’t materially impact the offense’s floor. They do — especially when you’re laying points.

Detroit walks in banged up themselves, but this is the same Lions team that pushes back every time the market fades them. Penei Sewell, Taylor Decker, and Graham Glasgow all leaving recent games is the headline, but the real story is Dan Campbell taking over the play calling and immediately injecting rhythm, aggression, and tempo back into the offense. Anyone can call plays against Washington’s disaster of a defense, sure — but the trust gained internally matters. You could feel the energy shift.

We’re also dealing with the wrong kind of November spot for Philadelphia. You’re asking a compromised O-line to block Aidan Hutchinson and a rested Detroit front for 60 minutes in cold, windy mid-November weather. That’s not where you want to be laying more than a field goal — yet the market opened close to that anyway.

Here’s the buried value:

The Eagles are 1–3 ATS when laying 4+ this season, and that trend exists for a reason. When asked to win comfortably, the cracks in their offensive rhythm show. Detroit, meanwhile, has been a high-variance but live dog all season. Goff outdoors is the narrative everyone falls back on, but he has outperformed that trope enough times that it no longer carries real weight — not when the Lions’ run game, play-action packages, and role-player depth travel this well.

Philadelphia is a good team with a shrinking margin for error. Detroit is a dangerous, pissed-off underdog with a more stable offense than the injury report suggests and a matchup advantage against the Eagles’ compromised front. Recommendation: Detroit +2½