Pinnacle   +14½ -110   BET365  +14½ -110 Sportsinteraction  +14½ -110  888port  +14½ -110

Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Tennessee +14½ over Indianapolis

Lucas Oil Stadium - Indianapolis, IN

4:25 PM ET. This number makes no sense. The Colts are being priced like the 1984 49ers, not a team that’s overachieved on the back of turnovers and an unsustainable red-zone conversion rate. Laying over two touchdowns in a divisional game is asking a lot — especially when the favorite has been living in the stratosphere for a month. Indy is good, sure, but the market’s acting like they’re flawless. They aren’t.

We get it — they’ve won six of seven, they’ve got the top-scoring offense in football, and Jonathan Taylor is running through people like they’re holograms. Those are all fine reasons to make them a favorite, but not this kind of favorite. This line assumes perfection from a team that’s built on rhythm and comfort. The problem is, comfort doesn’t last forever in the NFL, and divisional games tend to drag teams into the mud.

Tennessee, meanwhile, is being priced like they’ve already quit. That’s often where the best value lives. Yes, they’re 1-6. Yes, they’ve been blown out more than once. That also means this price reflects the worst of their perception. They were embarrassed by New England last week and now walk into Indy as a two-touchdown underdog to a team they see twice every year. You think that doesn’t sting a locker room full of pros?

Cam Ward has taken his lumps, but the kid can play. He’s mobile, he’s got touch, and he’s been working behind a patchwork line that’s forced him into survival mode every week. If Tennessee can just get out of its own way — finish drives, make a kick or two, and avoid the three-and-outs that gas their defense — they can easily stay inside this inflated number.

The Titans’ defense, even banged up, still has enough toughness up front to force Indy to earn it. And that matters when the clock keeps moving and possessions shrink. This is classic letdown territory for the Colts — huge home favorite, coming off a road win, divisional opponent everyone expects them to crush. Those are the games that get tricky.

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