Pinnacle   +235   BET365  +235  Sportsinteraction  +235  888port  +235

Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

N.Y. Jets +235 over Cincinnati

1:00 PM ET. This is the very definition of an inflated number. The Bengals finally won a football game last week and suddenly the market’s acting like they’re back to being a powerhouse. They’re not.

That win over Pittsburgh was fluky as hell. Cincinnati was outgained, bailed out by turnovers, and needed every break in the book to survive. Joe Flacco’s 342 yards look good on paper, but a deeper look shows a dozen drives that stalled, a running game that never got going, and a defense that hasn’t stopped anyone for four quarters all season. The Bengals are still the same team that lost four in a row before that — soft in the trenches, thin at corner, and living off two elite receivers.

Now they’re being asked to spot nearly a touchdown against anyone? That’s rich.

As for the Jets, there’s no denying they’re a mess. The quarterback carousel is ugly, and Woody Johnson’s public whining about his offense doesn’t help. Still, what the market misses here is that New York’s defense is absolutely capable of keeping this within a possession. They rank top-five in pressure rate, and even without Sauce Gardner, they bring enough heat to disrupt a one-dimensional Cincinnati offense that lives and dies with Flacco’s arm.

This is also a classic situational letdown for the Bengals. They finally broke the skid, the locker room relaxed, and now they’re staring down a “should-win” spot before heading into a winnable game with Chicago next week. That’s the kind of sandwich spot where inflated favorites go to die.

The Jets have every reason to show up angry — desperate teams with competent defenses are almost always worth a look when catching a number like this. The points have value, and the outright upset wouldn’t shock us in the least.

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