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Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Tampa Bay +225 over Detroit

7:00 PM ET. The Lions are everyone’s darling again. National spotlight, prime-time slot, double-digit wins a season ago, the kneecap-eating coach, the whole “grit” act. It’s a fun story—until the market overvalues it. That’s where we come in. Detroit just played its biggest game of the year on national TV, a Monday nighter in Kansas City where the football world watched them punch up and win. That’s a massive emotional peak, followed by a short week of preparation and a price inflated by recency bias. They’re now laying almost a converted touchdown against a team that’s every bit as tough, every bit as physical, and far better coached than people realize.

Tampa Bay quietly owns the NFC’s best record and just played its most complete game of the season. The Bucs have won five of six and haven’t allowed more than 20 points in any of those wins. Baker Mayfield is making all the right reads, protecting the football, and keeping drives alive with his legs. Tampa’s offense isn’t flashy, but it’s efficient and opportunistic. What’s more, they’re doing it while missing key skill players—guys who might be back this week.

Mike Evans returning changes everything. He’s Mayfield’s safety valve, and even at 80%, he draws attention away from Godwin and the tight ends. Combine that with Detroit’s secondary being held together by duct tape—Branch suspended, two starters already hurt—and suddenly this Lions defense looks far less imposing. We’ve seen this setup before.

Teams that peak emotionally in front of a national audience tend to flatten out the following week, particularly when asked to cover a big number. Detroit is still a good team, but they’ve also given up 30+ in two of their last three and now face a dog with bite, not bark.

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