Pinnacle    +5½ -110     BET365  +5½ -110  Sportsinteraction  +5½ -110  888port  +5½ -110

Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Cincinnati +5½ over Pittsburgh

Paycor Stadium – Cincinnati, OH

8:15 PM ET. The market loves the Steelers. The talking heads love the Steelers. Even the public that swore off Mike Tomlin’s crew three seasons ago is back at the table eating out of his hand. They’re 4-1, they have Aaron Rodgers, and they’ve beaten up on backup quarterbacks. Now, they’re laying significant road lumber in a divisional primetime game. That’s where the trap snaps shut.

Cincinnati’s record and perception are driving this number, not their actual trajectory. They’ve lost four straight, yes, but that’s a surface read. Dig deeper. Joe Flacco — yes, that Joe Flacco — looked shockingly competent in his first start after being traded midweek from Cleveland. He ran the offense with command, converted twice on fourth down for scores, and led a 17-play touchdown drive out of halftime. That’s not noise. That’s progress.

We’re not in the business of betting teams — we’re betting numbers — and +5½ is a dead giveaway. Pittsburgh is overvalued here, inflated by narrative. The market still thinks this team is an AFC powerhouse because Aaron Rodgers hasn’t face-planted yet, but it’s fool’s gold. They’ve played one real defense all season and looked completely pedestrian doing it. Rodgers is 41 years old on a short week behind an O-line that’s still missing both tackles. Those are the ingredients for a letdown, not domination.

Cincinnati is battered but not broken. The defense gets rookie Shemar Stewart back, which matters a ton for pressure packages against a stationary Rodgers. Meanwhile, the Steelers’ special teams captain is out, and their depth in the secondary has been eroding for weeks. The market doesn’t care — it’s too busy buying the “Rodgers renaissance.” That’s fine. Let them.

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