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-3½ -110-3½ -110  -3½ -110

Posted at 11:00 AM EST and odds are subject to change.

Pinnacle has the best number here with the Ravens -3½ +101

Baltimore -3½ over Miami

1:00 PM EST. In a Week 1, where every team except Dallas scored at least one TD, Miami’s stingy defense held the Patriots to a mere seven points en route to a 13-point win. Sure, the Patriots aren’t what they once were, but they are still the Patriots and they are still coached by Bill Belichick. When one embarrasses the G.O.A.T, the market takes notice.

Rather than follow the masses, we are not going to slobber all over Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. We are not going to announce he has “arrived”. Hell, we’re not even going to give him much credit for his team’s 20-7 win. Before we start with what happened last Sunday, let’s go back to 2021, when chatter started to swirl that the Fish didn’t want anything more to do with Tua. He was trade fodder for an alleged sexual abuser that everyone knew was going to be suspended. That is not what we’d call a ringing endorsement. As for Week 1, he was 23-for-33 for 270 yards and a major. Not bad, but when you consider the Dolphins were fed three turnovers and won that battle 3-0, the 13-point win looks a little light. We delve even deeper and see that on the stat sheet, this game was dead even. Miami had 18 first downs to New England’s 17. Miami won the total yards battle by a narrow margin of just 30 yards. The final score looks nice but the performance was as mediocre as most of Miami’s performances.

Readers of this space know that we have been critical of Lamar Jackson since his days at Louisville, but that doesn’t matter here because all the value is on fading the Fish. As for these Ravens, they crushed the Jets just like the market expected they would but perhaps more importantly, Lamar Jackson wasn't distracted by the lack of a contract extension. Jackson dominated like he usually does in a season opener, throwing for three touchdowns with one interception. He played loose, looking off his favorite target, Mark Andrews, over the middle and finding Devin Duvernay 25 yards downfield in the end zone. Jackson then stepped up for a 55-yard touchdown strike to Rashod Bateman. It was the type of performance that the Ravens desperately needed for an offense that is without its top two left tackles (Ronnie Stanley and Ja'Wuan James) and top running back (J.K. Dobbins), which is another one of the reasons we get the Ravens at a discount here.

After hearing all offseason how their pass rush was the biggest question (Baltimore ranked 22nd in sacks last season), the Ravens recorded three sacks (another was negated by a penalty) and nine quarterback hits in their reunion with Super Bowl-winning quarterback Joe Flacco. Justin Houston continually crashed the edge, and Justin Madubuike collapsed the pocket from the middle. The Ravens, though, wreaked havoc against the Jets offensive line. Incidentally, Tua Tagovailoa was sacked three times against the Patriots in the opener so we’ll see how he does when he has to make quicker decisions.

To summarize, the Dolphins win over the Patriots had much more impact in the market than the Ravens win over the Jets. That has caused a deflated point or two. Combine it with everything else mentioned above and you can throw in another deflated point. It is worth noting that Lamar Jackson has a career regular season record of 38-12 (5th QB since 1970 w/ 38+ wins in 1st 50 starts). He is 12-1 in career season openers and this week we get him and the Ravens at a discounted rate. Recommendation: Baltimore -3½