Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 4:30 PM EST.
L.A. CHARGERS +150 over Kansas City
8:20 PM EST. The Kansas City Chiefs beat the Las Vegas Raiders 48-9 last Sunday to win their sixth straight game and keep sole possession of the AFC West lead. It was a good performance from the surging Kansas City defense, but it was a great performance for the offense. It’s now three weeks in a row that Kansas City has allowed exactly nine points to its opponent, beating the Cowboys 19-9, the Broncs 22-9 and the Raiders 48-9. During their six game winning streak, the Chiefs have outscored the opposition, 163-65. The market now believes that Kansas City is trustworthy again, which provides us with this outstanding opportunity.
Yes indeed folks, the market loves wins and losses more than anything else so you are going to hear the phrase “six-game winning streak” over and over and over and over until it's embedded in your brain. Not once will you hear anyone say that one of those victories was against the Aaron-Rodgers-less Packers by a weak score of 13-7. Not once will you hear that another victory was over the garbage Giants by a lousy field goal (20-17) in Kansas City, no less. Not once will you hear that when Kansas City beat Denver, they did so after getting absolutely dominated on the field. If one were to look at the box score of that game and not know the score, one would have to surmise that it was a blowout in Denver’s favor. Not once will you hear that when the Chiefs beat Dallas by another weak score of 19-9, Dallas turned it over five times (2 INT's, 2 fumbles and 1 on downs). Finally, two of K.C’s wins during its six game streak came against the fast sinking Raiders by scores of 41-14 and 48-9. Take away 89 points and suddenly their six-game “dominance” is suddenly all smoke and mirrors.
Justin Herbert's slump at midseason is over, and the Chargers offense is back to top speed. They lost Keenan Allen to the COVID-19 list last week, but he's expected back here. The Chargers also got a scare when Austin Ekeler injured his ankle against the Giants in Week 14, but that is also nothing to worry about, and Ekeler wanted back in but they likely held him out expressly to be healthy for this Thursday night matchup. Justin Herbert saw a downturn in production around midseason but has been prolific in the last month and he's also tended to produce more when at home. Justin Herbert is either the best QB in the league or damn close to it but all the market sees (and hears about) is a six-game winning streak by the Chiefs capped off by last week’s beatdown that was over five minutes into the game. That Kansas City is favored here, traveling on a short week is absurd.
Kansas City has had two difficult opponents the past 10 weeks, three if you were to include the Cowboys when Dallas turned it over five times and allowed just 19 points in a 10-point loss. The other two difficult opponents were Buffalo and Tennessee (with Derrick Henry). K.C. lost both those games by scores of 38-20 and 27-3. Not once will you hear about that either, except from us. We don’t need the points. Chargers outright.
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L.A. CHARGERS +150 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.00)