Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 10:00 AM EST.
DALLAS 8 -104 over Atlanta
1:00 PM EST. It’s been a while since two double-digit favorites both went down on a Sunday afternoon, with the Cowboys making it a doubleheader after the Bills dropped the ball in Jacksonville. In retrospect, it might be easy to say that the 10½ points being offered up to Denver was a little spendy and that the Broncos deserved more respect, but there were few hollering that from the hills last Sunday. The Cowboys were survivor pools killers. At no point were they ever in a position to win that game, let alone cover the inflated number.
If you’re looking for someone to defend “Big D,” you won’t find that here. The ‘Boys got their bums spanked up and down the field. If there was one thing Dallas did well in Week 9, we don’t know what it is, other than failing on fourth down. With that in mind, we have to wonder what the appetite might be for this team spotting another double-digit spread (at open) while taking what the market sees as a step up in competition. The answer to that is in the number, as it is now down to the current price you see here.
The Falcons have played themselves into respectability, at least in the eyes of the pundits. It’s funny what can change from week to week—case in point, Torrey Smith on Sirius NFL Radio, could not see a path to victory for Atlanta in their Week 9 showdown in New Orleans. Well, a 27-25 win later, and now Mr. Smith says the Falcons are for real! Really?! Dude isn’t the only one. The Falcons are the flavor of the week. They’ve won three of four games, sport a 3-1 road record, and easily cashed outright as a 7-point pooch against the Saints.,
If you were wondering when the fists were going to fly, here it is. The Falcons stink. They’ve stunk all year, and we expect they’ll stink out the joint the rest of the way and it starts right here. In a “buy low, sell high” business, the Falcons are the latter. If this were the stock market, there would be a five-alarm fire sale on the Dirty Birds. The red flags surrounding this .500 side are abundant.
Despite the modest success, the Falcons were the better team on the field in just one of those three victories the last four weeks. They dominated the Jets (big whoop) yet still only won 27-20. Other than that, Atlanta has been fortunate. It was outgained in wins over the Dolphins (in London) and Saints. Further dissection of that game on Sunday shows the Falcons were bested in first downs (26-to-18) and time of possession (32:21-to-27:23). Perhaps most importantly, the Falcons made journeyman Trevor Siemian look like a capable pivot. What do you think Dak Prescott is going to do here?
While it might not be often you see us spot a pile of points like this; there are no hard and fast rules. Value can be found in many places, and in this case, it sides with the Cowboys, who are offering up far fewer points than they ought to be. What would this number have been had everything gone according to the script in Week 9? Do not forget the furious firepower the Cowboys were pumping off before getting shut down by the Broncos. It was some Madden shit week after week. Forget that bump in the road; Dallas got caught playing their “C” game but a return to form here is almost assured. If you’re looking for the cherry on top, the Falcons host the Patriots on Thursday night football in Week 11, which is always a situation we are mindful of and are eager to fade.
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DALLAS -8 -104 (Risking 2.08 units - To Win: 2.00)