Philadelphia @ DETROIT
Philadelphia -3 +102 over DETROIT

Pinnacle -3½ +102 BET365 -3½ +100 SportInteraction  -3½ -105 BetOnlin -3½ +100 Bookmaker  -3½ -105

Posted at 10:30 AM EST.

Philadelphia -3½ +102 over DETROIT

1:00 PM EST. Pop quiz. What did the Lions do in Week 2? Week 4? How about the Eagles in Week 5, or 1? Before you get your Google on, hopefully our point has not flown the coop. Recency bias looms large, especially in a week to week league like the NFL that gets, oh, 98% of the market’s attention with the rest of the wagering circus to fight over the other 2%.

The Lions did not win in Los Angeles on Sunday but they performed about as well as a 17-point road pooch could without taking home the win. Did Jared Goff give Sean McVay two double tall mans, ala “Stone Cold” Steve Austin and tell his former coach to go fuck himself? Not really. We’ll get to Goff, but he was not the story coming out of the Lions side of that 28-19 final that the Lions were never in danger of not covering.

So if not Goff, then what could possibly have the winless Lions buzzing here in Week 8? Dan Campbell’s “do not give two fucks approach” to the start of that game last Sunday afternoon? The late slate was loaded with lopsided affairs and with a little sizzle for the steak the Rams/Lions were easily the tastiest of that limited selection because of all the off season drama. Therefore, it got the Lion’s share of the attention. Pun totally fucking intented. Depending on where you shop, the Lions opened as just a 13½-point underdog but that blew up to 17-points by kickoff. There is going to be a temptation to “zig-zag” and back the Lions this week in what appears to be a much more favorable situation, however, that is one of the cardinal sins of wagering.

The Eagles went to Vegas and played like they bet on the Raiders in that 33-22 loss. That game was pretty much a coin flip at close and other than a modest (and short) 7-0 lead, Philadelphia got its doors blown off. It was 30-7 going to the fourth quarter. How many stay tuned to see the Eagles score a bunch of  garbage time points? Regardless, how much of an appetite is there to spot points with these Eagles? However, this price is smaller than it would have been otherwise if Detroit got whacked as expected and the Eagles showed up. The dregs in this league are getting 10, 11, 14 and 16 points this week. The Lions are getting 3½. Do the Lions not deserve the same respect as the Giants, Jets, Dolphins and Texans? From time to time, there’s some value in short priced favorites and Philadelphia comes in as such this week.

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Our Pick

Philadelphia -3 +102 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.04)

Early leans & analysis over
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