Pinnacle -3 +102 BET365 -3 -110 SportInteraction  -3 +100 BetOnline  -3 +100 Bookmaker  -3 -105

Posted at 10:30 AM EST.

INDIANAPOLIS -3 +102 over Tennessee

1:00 PM EST. You do not need to adjust your glasses; the 3-4 Colts are favored over the 5-2, division-leading Titans. The question is, why? Before we answer that, allow us to "sell" a half point here and take this price up to -3 instead of -2½ and extra vig.

We are going to let the analytics do the work on this one. Enter the Titans, who appear to be in control in the AFC South, as they have a full two-game lead on these Colts with a win already in the bag over them (Week 3, 25-16). However, it does not take long to pick apart the Titans and a division lead that is built like a house of cards.

A 27-3 drubbing of the mighty Chiefs will resonate, but at this point, K.C. cannot stay out of its own way and is turning the ball over at such a high clip that it is hard to put much stock in the victories of their opponents. That would include Tennessee, which benefited from three Chiefs turnovers to jump out to a considerable lead, and it never looked back. As we said, we’re going to get greasy here, and that’s where the case for the Titans as a legit AFC contender falls apart. 

First, Tennessee has an expected win total of just 3.2 over at Football Outsiders. Much of that has to do with the fact that the Titans are almost a bottom third squad (20-of-32) in overall team DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average). The five squads you’ll find right behind the Titans are the Eagles, Broncos, Football Team, Bears, and Giants. Nobody is ready to crown any of those sides competent football teams, let alone division favorites.

As for the Colts, one could say they’ve been unlucky. The Colts expected wins are higher than the Titans, even if it’s just a tick (3.8), but if one were to round it to the nearest whole number, that’s a one-game spread through eight weeks. Not insignificant in what the talking heads would have you believe is a one-horse race. As for the rest of what the Colts have working under the surface, their team DVOA rank is #15. Not elite, but better than the fucking Titans.

It’s not just the win over K.C. that has Tennessee’s stock trending up. The week before in prime time, Tennessee beat Buffalo. Applying recency bias and one would find that Tennessee has back-to-back wins over the two representatives of the AFC final last season. With Tennessee's stock inflated, their body of work exposed, and their future prospects picked apart, we have to trust spotting points with Indy in this spot is the prudent play. To add the cherry on top, the Titans will play a high-profile, prime-time game next Sunday night in Los Angeles against the Rams. Incidentally, you could do A LOT worse than betting the Colts to win the AFC South at +350, which quite frankly is a ridiculous number but first things first.

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