NFL 2021

Week 7

What you see below is our early leans. Many of the selections below will stay the same and some will be moved into official plays with wagers on Sunday. However, there is also the possibility that we see, read or get a sense that something is not right with one of our selections and change our pick. There are several different criteria we use to grade a game and make it an official play and a lot of things can happen or change between Friday and Sunday.

We’re intent on providing our readers with the best possible selections and doing so on Sunday instead of Friday just makes more sense. We made that change two years ago and ended up going 81-57 (+64 units) in 2018, 65-59 in 2019 (+16 units) and 55-62 in last year's unusual pandemic season. Again, we’ll have all write-ups (except Monday Night Football) posted on Friday but our actual wagers won’t be posted until Sunday morning between 10 AM and 12:00 PM EST

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Week 7

MIAMI +2½ -105 over Atlanta

1:00 PM EST. Much has been made about the Dolphins having to pick themselves up by the bootstraps and head right back out on the field sans bye after taking the long road trip to London last Sunday. Here’s what you may not know. Miami made this choice. The league didn’t screw with them or fuck ‘em around, they chose to defer their bye week until later in the season. One of the reasons for the deferral was that the Fish made a similar call in 2017. In that season, Miami went to London and when it returned, it went on a three-game winning streak. That’s not to say the same thing will happen here, as those prior results have no bearing, but there has been a precedent set for this situation and the results do not jive with the current perception about the Dolphins’ plight.

In addition to their apparent travel woes, the Dolphins are hurting on both sides of the ball with corners Xavien Howard and Byron Jones both limited in practice, as were receivers DeVante Parker and Preston Williams. However, this information is not privileged and has been factored into the line.

Who the fuck are the Falcons to be spotting road points against anyone? Is that really a role that they are well suited for? We think not. At 2-4, the Falcons are barely a notch above the 1-5 Dolphins if they are at all. Matt Ryan is cooked. He’s 36, stuck on a losing team, and has no path to return to the Super Bowl with the Dirty Birds. As for their victories, the Falcons barely beat the Giants at home in overtime and beat the Jets in London 27-20. For some perspective as to just how out of whack this line is, Atlanta was priced in a similar range last week against New York and was a dog to both the Giants and The Football Team the two weeks prior. A team that was a pooch to the G-Men just two games ago cannot be the chalk here. The overreactions on Cleveland’s injured troops on Thursday are pale in comparison to the overreactions to Miami’s woes this week. Recommendation: Miami +2½ -105

N.Y. Jets +6½ over NEW ENGLAND

1:00 PM EST. After an early Week 5 start in London and bye last Sunday, it feels like the Jets have been off the radar for a month, but such is life in the 24-hour NFL news cycle. That 27-20 loss to the Falcons across the pond has the new look Jets at 1-4, which isn’t much better than the old Jets. This is a results based business and so the kickoff to the Robert Selah/Zach Wilson era has been considered a failure already. At the pay window, it’s been no better, as the Jets post the same 1-4 mark against the spread. When one gains a reputation as a loser, one becomes a target for a market that loves an “easy winner."

The Patriots went toe-to-toe with the mighty Cowboys in a high profile showdown in the late afternoon slate and although they came out on the wrong end of that 35-29 overtime decision, they gained back much of the shine lost the week prior in Houston. However, we’re not buying it. The Patriots were very fortunate to be in that game. Dallas racked up 232 more yards, nearly twice as many first downs (32-to-17) and owned the time of possession by over 12 minutes. In fact, the Pats have been outgained by everyone they have played this season (Jets and Texans included) except the Saints.

Bill Belichick, the genius? Maybe, when Terrific Tommy Brady was the quarterback, but now? He don’t look too smaht, ya know? To break down how BB totally bungled so much of that Cowboys game and the others would take more time and energy than we are willing to give.

When you spend your life patrolling the sidelines looking like a man who does not shower or have access to a clean sweatshirt all while coattailing the G.O.A.T. to multiple championships, we guess it’s inevitable that people are going to think you are a fucking genius. The numbers don’t lie though and minus #12, Belichick is 64-77 all-time without Brady, while Tommy is 19-6 without BB. In 2020, their first season apart, we all know who came out smelling like a rose. In 2021, the Pats are 3-2, with their only wins coming against the lowly Texans and these Jets, who they blasted 25-6 in Week 2. A closer look shows that was one of the most misleading scores of the season. The Jets were equals or superior to the Pats in just about any stat category you want from that game. The difference? Four Wilson interceptions

In a week where there are three double-digit spreads on the board featuring the likes of the Texans (+17½), Lions (+16), and Bears (+12½), don’t the Jets look a little out of place opening as a 6½-point pooch? Especially considering that 19-point drubbing New York already took from the Pats on its home field. While it might appear like an easy number to digest, more often than not, these 6½-point dogs not only cover but win outright.

Back in Week 4 in the most anticipated regular season game in history, the Patriots were given no chance to cover or compete against Tampa Bay. New England lost by two and easily covered. That great performance caused an overreaction the very next week similar to this one. As a 9-point favorite against Houston, New England pulled a rabbit out its ass and hit a FG at the buzzer to win it by 2 points. New England’s near upset of Dallas last week has caused another overreaction that we will attempt to take advantage of. The Patriots are a weak favorite. Recommendation: N.Y. Jets +6½ -105

Cincinnati +6½ -105 over BALTIMORE

1:00 PM EST. It’s not often the Bengals are in the hunt for tops in the AFC North, but after six weeks, they are 4-2 and just a game behind the Ravens. Despite the success, there does not appear to be much of an uptick in Cincinnati’s stock, at least if this line is any indication.

The Bengals, like the Browns, have been second-class citizens in the AFC’s Black and Blue division, as the Ravens and Steelers have been running roughshod over those teams for what feels like decades. In more recent times, the Ravens have dominated the Bengals and it’s not been close, which is maybe one reason why Cincy is taking back such an inflated pile of points here. Scores of 38-3, 27-3, 49-13 the last three outings might make it easier to swallow a converted touchdown, but these are not your daddy’s Bungles.

A healthy Joe Burrow, and the addition of explosive big play receiver Ja’Marr Chase has done wonders for the Bengals and Ravens coach John Harbaugh has taken notice even if the masses have not, "The whole team is one of the best teams in the National Football League right now. There's no question about it -- just watch them play. ... We've got our hands full”. To quote Walter White, “You’re goddamn right”.

The Ravens have tenure, pedigree, and high expectations. They are 5-1 and coming off a beat down of the red hot Super Chargers. That 34-6 final resonated loudly, as the Chargers were the talk of the football world coming into that high profile clash between two young star pivots. We pegged the Ravens to cover that game and while it worked out, we do not play favorites and now it is time to switch gears.

It’s not like Baltimore has been steamrolling everyone either. The Ravens narrowly escaped a Monday Night Football clash with the Colts in Week 5 (31-25, OT), squeaked out 19-17 win in Detroit by way of a record-setting field goal, knocked off the Chiefs 36-35, and edged the Raiders in Week 1, 33-27 in overtime. Had a bounce or two gone the other way, the Ravens would be 2-4 or 3-3. Instead, their win record is inflated, much like this number. Do not sleep on the Bengals, as they can win this one outright. Recommendation: Cincinnati +6½

N.Y. GIANTS +3 -105 over Carolina

1:00 PM. Really? REALLY? Every once in a while, oddsmakers will post a line that has the coffee spewing from our pie holes upon first glance. Enter the Panthers and Giants. We’ve watched more Giants football this season than we would like to admit, and because of that, we might be poisoned. This is a really bad football team. That’s not some hot take. Anyone else who has wagered or watched these bozos will have similar thoughts. Like, for fucksake, the Giants have been outscored 82-31 the last two weeks. They are 1-5 and in the middle of another lost year, yet they are taking back a very slim margin here. Why?

The Panthers are 3-3 under Sam Darnold, but they started 3-0 and are sliding fast, losing three straight, including last Sunday in a 34-28 overtime loss to the Vikings. While that defeat does not look that bad on the surface, the Cats were very lucky to even make it to overtime after being dominated nearly all afternoon. The Vikings had 265 more yards and owned the time of possession by over 11 minutes. The Panthers were down double digits with 10:15 to play before coming all the way back to tie it with less than a minute to play.

So with two teams that are struggling, where does the value lie? Well, the Panthers were a slight home favorite over the Eagles just two weeks ago, and now they are spotting a similar price on the road against the G-Men. This will be the third time this season that Carolina has been the chalk. They are 2-1 in those games, both straight up and against the spread, but those wins and covers came against the Jets and Texans and their rookie quarterbacks. Their loss was 21-18 to the aforementioned Eagles. New York is stepping down in class here, having faced the Rams and Cowboys the last two weeks. Given their 4-15 against the spread (ATS) mark as a home ‘dog, weak pass rush and so many injuries on offense, it’s difficult to get behind the Giants, which is usually our prompt to move in. You see, the Giants have the reputation as one of the league’s dregs while the Panthers do not. New York is also a media hotbed, where the G-Men are being ripped apart every day by the Post and the Times. New York media has influence but we’re going to trust that oddsmakers knew what they were doing with this one when they hung this line on the board. The Panthers are one of many teams that cannot be trusted spotting road points and now that the Giants stock has hit bottom, we are forced to be buyers. That’s what we do. Recommendation. N.Y. GIANTS +3 -105

Kansas City -4½ -105 over TENNESSEE

1:00 PM EST. The Titans are 4-2, but if there is a bigger paper tiger in this league, we’re not sure who it is. A huge Monday night win over the Bills is going to resonate, but that too was about as lucky as they come. The Bills dictated the play, but could not cash in for pay dirt, settling for field goals in their first two scoring drives. Rather than putting the Titans down early, Tennessee was allowed to hang around and took a 34-31 lead with 3:05 to play after overcoming a 31-24 deficit to start the fourth quarter. Let us not forget that the Bills were stuffed on the goal line when they decided to go for the win, however, in the market, there was little doubt that the Titans would be able to cover the 6-point spread. That Tennessee is taking back a similar price this week as they did last week to a team that just got whacked by the Bills two weeks ago, looks very appealing, but buyer beware.

The Chiefs are 3-3, but just 2-4 where it matters most, at the window. A 31-13 smashing of the Football Team last Sunday was just Kansas City’s second cover of the season, with the other coming against the Eagles in Week 4. While it looks dire, the Chiefs have played some pretty damn stiff competition. So stiff in fact that K.C. ranks as the toughest schedule played through six weeks over at Football Outsiders. Even with the stout lineups the Chiefs have faced, they are still ranked #2 in offensive DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) which is not a good matchup for the Titans’ #28 ranked defense. For some perspective on how little oddsmakers are fazed by the Chiefs’ slow start, they are still a +700 shot to win the Super Bowl. The 5-1 Rams are +800, 6-0 Cardinals +900, the 5-1 Packers +900 and the 5-1 Ravens, who beat the Chiefs are +1000. The Almighty Cowboys? +1400. These 4-2 Titans? +2200. You get the point. The Chiefs’ stock is at its lowest in the Patrick Mahomes era and we are going to try to take advantage. Recommendation: KANSAS CITY -4½ -105

GREEN BAY -7½ -105 over Washington

1:00 PM EST. There are a lot of moving parts in this one, so we’ll get right to it. First up is the Football Team, who just got waffled by the Chiefs last Sunday. Washington is now 2-4, which is sadly still good for a split of second place with the Eagles in the NFC East. Yikes. Expectations were high in Washington to start the year with a highly regarded defense and the arrival of quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick, but alas, the most significant thing to come out of the Washington football offices are the email leaks that buried Jon Gruden.

The Packers are 5-1, but situationally speaking, this does not appear to be a great spot for them with a Thursday Night Football date with the Cardinals on deck. However, Green Bay opened as double-digit chalk and is now spotting the price you see now. If you play The Football Team here, you would be doing so at a bad number. You/we missed the best number so playing Washington is not an option in our book.

While the 10-point opening line was obviously enticing, we’re not sure if it was as inflated as it appeared. The Cardinals, who the Packers will play next week, are a better than two touchdown choice over the Texans. The Rams are the same over the Lions. Should the Packers not be getting the same respect in this spot?

Green Bay already has three double-digit wins this season over the Bears (24-14), Steelers (27-17), and Lions (35-17) and it’s worth noting that the Packers weren’t particularly good in any one of them. This is not a team that is firing on all cylinders, playing great ball, and racking up wins. They’ve been in a dog fight every week. The Packers were smashed in Week 1 against the Saints, were down at halftime against the Lions, traded blows with the 49ers on Sunday night, played tough games with the Steelers and Bengals, and then went on the road in Chicago and took care of business, again. Now the Packers get the Football Team at Lambeau? That’s a big step down in competition and one that justified the respect given by oddsmakers at open. Recommendation: Green Bay -7½ -105

Chicago +12½ -105 over TAMPA BAY

4:25 PM EST. The Buccaneers come in with just one loss and the reputation of being one of the best teams in the NFL. That badge of honour has followed Tom Brady around for two decades and will continue to follow him around until he’s set to retire at the age of 55, 11 years from now.

Tampa is 5-1. Its loss to the Rams in Week 3 is long forgotten. When one thinks of the Bucs, one thinks of Super Bowl contender, racking up points, great WR’s, Tom Brady and winning football. Brady made BB into a genius and now he’s making Bruce Arians into an offensive genius too. Do you know who else is a genius? Tony Dungy was a true genius when Peyton Manning was on his team. Another genius is Nick Saban in the most fertile recruiting grounds on the planet. Another genius? Basketball’s Phil Jackson was a fucking wizard when he had Kobe, Shaq, Michael Jordan and Scottie Pippen all in their primes. The point is that Tampa’s stock has been rising for two years and counting. Pay a premium if you like to get behind them but underneath it all is a résumé that the media makes out to be better than it is.

Tampa’s five wins this year have come against Dallas (by 2), Atlanta, New England (barely), Miami and Philadelphia. Other than Dallas way back in Week 1 in a game the Bucs got shredded, Tampa’s other four victories came against teams that have two victories or less in 2021. Against the only two formidable foes, the Bucs are 0-2 against the spread and it wasn’t even close. The question now is whether or not the Bears are a formidable foe and we’ll side with a resounding yes.

First, Chicago’s defense is as tough as shoe leather. The Bears possess a ferocious pass rush that features Kahlil Mack and Robert Quinn on the edges that have already accounted for 11½ sacks between them. That’s elite. The Bears rate among the best with 21 sacks. While the entire betting world focuses on the injuries to other teams, Tampa’s long list is being largely ignored. Aside from a banged up secondary on the defensive side, Rob Gronkowski, Brady’s deadliest and favorite red zone target might be forced to sit this one out.

As for the Bears offense, well, Justin Fields’ coming out party is on the verge of happening. Dude provides a quarterback running dimension the Buccaneers are not familiar with. Fields is also a student of the game that is getting better each week because he’s smart, he’s getting a better understanding of NFL defenses, he studies film to no end and perhaps most importantly is that he learns from his mistakes. He’s also talented. So, while the Bucs have played one of the easiest schedules in the league thus far, the Bears have played four contenders in Green Bay, the Rams, the Bengals and the then healthy Browns. Finally, Chicago has been involved in some of the most misleading scores this year, which includes last week when they had just as many passing and rushing yards as the Pack but a plethora of bad calls that went against them was just too much to overcome. A handsome inflated pile of points here goes to the Bears and we’re on it. Recommendation: Chicago +12½

L.A. RAMS -16 -105 over Detroit

4:05 PM EST. Man, if one is predisposed to playing pooches, Week 7 has much to feast on with a plethora of points spread all around. While rookie quarterbacks are at the helm in Houston and Chicago, the Lions’ situation is much different. Does that make them a more trustworthy play? Not necessarily.

It’s tempting to get on board with Detroit. It’s been a hard-luck season. The Lions are 0-6, but they are 3-3 against the spread, which does matter when cashing tickets is the name of the game. They also have a veteran quarterback in Jared Goff, who just so happens to have a little history in La La Land.

The “revenge” angle is one that the talking heads love. It’s easy fodder. Low hanging fruit. A slam dunk. Those hot takes have an influence and from what we’re hearing and reading, this is way too many points for Goff to be taking back in such a situation. However, this is not a fistfight between Goff and Sean McVay or Matthew Stafford, it is a football game with over 90 players dressed and ready to go on both sidelines. Losing stinks and while the Lions have been fair to their backers, we doubt the 53 players on that roster give a shit about tickets cashed. When a team gets stuck in the mud and starts to sink, it is very hard to get out of it. A 34-11 thumping from the Bengals last week may have been the breaking point. Had a bounce gone their way could the Lions be 2-4 or 3-3? Sure, but they are not. They are the league’s only winless team and that is not going to change here.

Winning and covering are two different beasts, but the Rams don’t appear to mind laying it on thick if the opportunity arises. In their games against the Giants (-7½) and Bears (-9) in which they were heavily favored, the Rams outscored those teams 82-25. For the fuss being made about how Goff was given the boot in L.A., few have said the same about Stafford’s departure from the Lions. Maybe it’s because he’s been so damn polite about his 12 years in pro football exile, but one has to think ‘Ol Matty Boy might have a decade worth of football frustration to take out on his former team. Stafford and company can name their number. There is little reason to not expect them to do so. Recommendation: L.A. RAMS -16 -105

Houston +17½ -105 over ARIZONA

4:25 PM EST. The Texans are bad, this is not news, but are they 17½-point pooch bad? A 31-3 loss last week in Indianapolis might lend some credibility to that notion, so too would a 40-0 shutout in Buffalo. However, one cannot ignore their 25-22 Week 5 loss to the Patriots in which the Texans played well. It’s easy to forget Houston’s win over the Jaguars in Week 1, as it is also easy to forget they had the Browns on the ropes in Week 2 until quarterback Tyrod Taylor went down. Rookie Davis Mills is just four starts into his career, but there have been flashes that he can play at this level.

The Cardinals are 6-0 and look unstoppable after having their way with the Browns (37-14) in Week 6. Arizona is putting up Madden-like numbers nearly every week, but going from a 3-point pup last week to a 17½-point favorite is quite the swing week over week. Does changing the venue and swapping in the Texans really justify a better than three touchdown adjustment from the books? Either that price last week was a bad one, or this is.
Situationally speaking, the Cardinals have bigger steaks to grill with a road trip to Wisconsin coming up on a short week. Is it out of line to suggest they might be looking past the Texans in what is a relatively meaningless interconference matchup? It might be hard to ignore this spread as well. These players all know the line. When one is 17½-point chalk, one might think less than 100% effort is needed. Recommendation: Houston +17½ -105

Philadelphia +3 -105 over LAS VEGAS

4:05 PM EST. We were bullish on the Raiders last week, suggesting they’d be relieved to be free of Jon Gruden. Unfortunately, we did not pull the trigger on Sunday and make Las Vegas an official play. While regrettable, we will not make the mistake of chasing that missed wager. The word is out that the atmosphere around the Raiders is improving, and they like playing for interim coach Rich Bisaccia. Dude has made a career of being the “good cop” to his head coach’s “bad cop.” He’s been the #2 man to Gruden, Norv Turner (Chargers), Gus Malzahn (Auburn), and Jason Garret (Cowboys). One does not stick around the game coaching for nearly 40 years unless one is good at the job, building relationships, or both. It’s so tempting to back on the new vibe Raiders this week after they plundered the Broncos and got that booty, but we fear that pirate ship has set sail. We must reverse course.

The last we saw of the Eagles, they were in a scrap with pirates of a different color in a 28-22 Thursday Night Football loss to the Buccaneers. It’s pretty easy to write off a game to the Bradys, but the Eagles are just 2-4 with Jalen Hurts at the helm in 2021, which will not attract much positive attention. Better days were expected for Philadelphia, and Hurts had high expectations in both football and fantasy circles. Dude has not lived up to that hype, which makes him a buy-low candidate.

Buy low, sell high, that is the mantra. In this case, we have teams on both ends of that spectrum. While the Raiders are on the upswing after their Mile High excursion, this might be a tough spot not to suffer a letdown, as it is sandwiched in between a win over a bitter rival and a well-earned Week 8 bye. That situation alone would be appealing from our perch, but when you also consider the exhaling after the Gruden fiasco and the opportunity to get the fuck away from all the bullshit that’s right around the corner and the potential for a letdown becomes even greater. From a wagering perspective, the Raiders are in no condition to be spotting points, even this seemingly modest price. Vegas has been favored twice this season, both at home, and it lost outright to the Bears (20-9) and needed overtime to edge Miami (31-28). In neither instance did they cover the number. An outright win for Philly isn’t only possible; it is the most likely outcome. Act accordingly. Recommendation: Philadelphia +3 -105

SAN FRANCISCO -4 over Indianapolis

8:20 PM EST. Who the fuck booked this shit? Please forgive the vulgarity, but who at NBC thought this was going to be a matchup worthy of a Sunday Night Football showcase. At best, it was then billed as Carson Wentz versus Jimmy Garoppolo. That is a lot of trust to put in two guys that usually can’t make it back from the bathroom without some kind of season-ending ailment. Maybe our tone would be different if these squads didn’t have a combined four wins through seven weeks of football, but even still, we don’t see the appeal. We understand that Patrick Mahomes and Aaron Rodgers can’t be on national TV every week, but this will be the second time the Colts and 49ers will each have been in prime time in just the last month. Indy has two more prime-time games, and the 49ers have 3! That is unless they can be flexed out later in the year. You know what? We take it back; Patrick Mahomes and Aaron Rodgers CAN be in prime time every week. Just save us from this mess.

As for a breakdown of these two teams, we actually like both sides and think they are undervalued. The problem is, they are playing each other. So now what? Let’s start with the Colts, who have won two of their last three, with that loss coming to the Ravens on Monday Night Football. Anyone that went to bet early was probably shocked to see Indy blow its 22-3 third-quarter lead. So if you’re keeping count, that's three straight quality showings that all cashed tickets.

Most recently, the 49ers lost a 17-10 decision in the desert to the Cardinals, which was their third loss in a row. The ‘Niners also failed to cover as a pooch in Arizona and as the betting chalk against the Seahawks (-2½) or Packers (-3). A peek back at those two games may give us some insight into where the value lies here. If San Fran was a field goal or so over Green Bay and Seattle, should it be spotting such a short price here against the two-win Colts? Again we emphasize, we actually like Indy, but that doesn’t matter, as we like the 49ers, too. However, it matters not what we “like” or how we “feel.” What would this line have been if these two squads played in Week 3 instead of Week 7? A touchdown? More? It’s not out of the question. Value-wise, there might not be a better play on the board than the 49ers, who are well rested and have had two weeks to prepare. Invest. Recommendation: SAN FRANCISCO -4 -105

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