Pinnacle +8 -105 BET365 +8 -110 SportsInteraction +8 -110 BetOnline +8 -110 Bookmaker +8 -110

Posted at 12:00 PM EST.

HOUSTON +8 -105 over Carolina

8:20 PM EST. Let us get this straight before we shit in our pants. The 2-0 Panthers, who beat the Jets and Saints and were a -3½ point home favorite to open the year against said Jets are now spotting twice that on the road in Houston because Tyrod Taylor is on the mattress? Well, we have news for you, this is Tyrod Taylor’s 5th NFL team. He’s been around for 10 years and has done jack. He’s been a starter, a backup, a third stringer and now he’s injured and the market is reacting like he’s Kyle Murray? Enter Davis Mills.     

Davis Mills only completed 8-of-18 passes for 102 yards and one TD in Cleveland last week. The rookie entered in the third quarter and threw an interception on his third pass. He threw most of his passes at Brandin Cook including his touchdown. Most of his incompletions to him were on deep passes. The market is reacting to a rookie QB getting his first start on a short week but we see it as something completely different. Mills got his feet wet. He’s been preparing for this moment for weeks, not days. He was thrown into the fire last week and didn’t look terrible. While Tyrod Taylor has years of experience and has paid his dues, he’s simply never been a good QB so we’re suggesting that the drop off from Taylor to Mills, if any, is very slight. Mills might actually be better in due time and a door has opened.    

Carolina is also getting way too much credit for donkey-kicking the Saints last week. Thing is, the Saints lost all their coaches to covid protocol. They’ve been displaced and on the road for weeks. They were also coming off a massive win over the Packers in Week 1, thus, they were ripe as hell to get beat. Meanwhile, the Texans kicked Jacksonville’s ass in Week 1 and battled and covered in Cleveland last week. 

Don't get carried away thinking that this 2021 Panthers team is strong because of one home win last week over an opponent who didn't offer NFL-caliber resistance. New Orleans was a bad football team last week in a bad situation and a bad spot.  Furthermore, despite Matt Rhule amply demonstrating that however much he's raised the talent level -- and therefore the bar for Carolina's A-game, he can't get his team to play consistently enough week after week to be favored in this range in the third week of his second year. Until further notice, Rhule's Panthers will always be prone to weeks where poor weekday practices and gaffe-filled Sunday’s prevail (or Thursday in this case). The NFL has a lot of weak teams and some teams may emerge early with a decent record yet be largely a fraud. This week, we’re not buying the hype for an isolated Thursday game for a road team that was a -3½-point home choice against the Jets two weeks ago and barely covered in a five-point win. This is a massive overlay and we’re on it.

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