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Posted at 10:30 AM EST.

MIAMI +174 over Buffalo

1:00 PM EST. Miami won, but did not impress in a 17-16 win in New England. Tua Tagovailoa may not have done much on the surface to silence his many critics, but he did play well in a hostile environment and really looked at home reunited with Jaylen Waddle. Waddle hauled in four passes for 61 yards and a major, again, not bad for a debut in enemy territory. This week, the Dolphins will be at home. That of course does not guarantee victory but to a game, those home fans were jacked to be back in the stands and Miamii will be no different.

In any other season, this might look like a pretty appealing bounce back situation for the Bills, however, this is not any other season. In an effort to keep the games on the field and the money in the bank, the NFL has implemented strict policies for players who are not vaccinated. These protocols limit contact between teammates during the week. This includes unvaccinated players having to test negative daily before entering the team facilities every single day. There is no interaction with teammates until the player is cleared. Do you have any idea what a pain in the ass that must be? In addition, it costs the team time and money catering to selfish idiots. No wonder head coach Sean McDermott was so frustrated that his team is lagging in the unselfishness department.

Buffalo has one of the lowest vaccination rates in the league and the face of that movement is the $250-million man Josh Allen ($150-million of that deal is guaranteed by the way). Allen is notably unvaccinated and while his team finally instituted a mandatory vaccine policy for Highmark Stadium patrons and staff, Allen does not apply, nor does Cole Beasley, Vernon Butler, Gabriel Davis, Star Lotulelei or any of the other unvaccinated Bills. Buffalo is one of only four teams that entered the season with a vaccination rate of less than 89%. A Washington Post report states that 92.7% of players league wide have got at least one jab. Money talks and most of these guys do not want to be fined or miss game checks. The vast majority also do not have fat Josh Allen-like contracts. How do you think those on the Bills who ARE vaccinated feel about their supposed “leader?”

We understand it’s early. We also understand that state of mind plays a massive role in outcomes. The game on its own is not only a physical battle but it’s a mental battle too. Miami is 1-0 and feeling great. Buffalo is 0-1 and divided. After a loss in which the philosophy isn’t “We win together and lose together”, there is bound to be some finger-pointing. Buffalo was supposed to have an easy win to open the year but instead they blew a 10-point lead and now must travel where there are many restrictions for unvaccinated players that figure to divide the team even more. For instance, unvaccinated players are required to stay in the team hotel for meals. They may not eat in restaurants while vaccinated players may. The Buffalo Bills seem to have become an anti-vaccination movement hotspot, with vocal opponents like Cole Beasley questioning all comers who try to argue about the efficacy of vaccines with them.

Furthermore, one should not be surprised one bit by Buffalo’s weak performance. In his first two years in the league, Josh Allen’s play was so erratic and unpredictable that it was dubbed “The Josh Allen Experience.” Accuracy problems and a striking lack of fundamentals plagued 2018’s seventh overall pick. But Allen showed flashes of promise as his sophomore season came to a close, thus putting the Bills high on everyone’s radar. He picked up last season where he left off, turning in not just a good season in 2020, but an unexpectedly elite one. His opponent-adjusted Total QBR of 81.7 was third in the NFL and ranks as the 12th highest in the league since 2006.

Most explanations for Allen’s improvement note his winning attitude and raw potential — potential that was ultimately unlocked through patience and good coaching. It’s a nice, feel-good story about long odds and hard work. But despite Allen being rewarded with a contract that made him the second-highest paid player at his position, at least one NFL decision maker is still unsure if he’s the real deal: “He perplexes me,” an anonymous personnel director told The Athletic’s Mike Sando, “because in my career I have not seen someone go from as inaccurate as he was in college to making this kind of transition.”

In 2019, Allen’s sophomore season, 23 percent of his incompletions were charted as off-target by ESPN’s Stats & Information Group, worst in the league. Based on history, we would have expected his below-average performance to continue. However, Allen’s off-target rate fell dramatically last year to 15.4 percent, a hair better than league average. That 7.6 percentage point improvement was good for second best in the NFL in 2020, behind only MVP Aaron Rodgers.

Still, as impressive as Allen’s rapid ascent was, it should probably give us pause. Of the 31 players since 2006 to record at least a 5-point improvement in off-target rate, nearly three quarters saw it rise the following season. Off-target throws that end in incompletions aren’t the end of the story, though. “Off-frame” passes — passes that were thrown high, low, ahead or behind a target but were still caught — represent another way to quantify Allen’s accuracy. By this measure, 2020 was a banner year for him. Allen threw for 10 touchdowns on 58 plays categorized as “off the frame” by the ESPN Stats & Information Group. That compares to just two touchdowns on 46 such plays in 2019. Allen’s 10 TDs in 2020 are tied for second most in a season since 2017 (the first year for which we have data). Moreover, Allen’s eight-touchdown increase on off-frame throws accounts for 47 percent of his total year-over-year touchdown improvement.

Allen’s success on these throws appears to be heavily driven by luck instead of skill. Among Allen’s peers who threw six or more off-frame TDs in a season, 85 percent saw their TD totals fall the next year. Allen already beat the odds simply by making it to the NFL. Allen led the Bills to two playoff wins, inserted himself into the MVP discussion, and followed that up by getting paid like a 1990s rock star. The hype surrounding him and the Bills now provides us with this great opportunity to take back inflated points. You see, the evidence suggesting Allen is due for regression is powerful. Now 0-1, do you really want to be spotting road points with the divided Bills?

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