NFL 2021

Week 2

What you see below is our early leans. Many of the selections below will stay the same and some will be moved into official plays with wagers on Sunday. However, there is also the possibility that we see, read or get a sense that something is not right with one of our selections and change our pick. There are several different criteria we use to grade a game and make it an official play and a lot of things can happen or change between Friday and Sunday.

We’re intent on providing our readers with the best possible selections and doing so on Sunday instead of Friday just makes more sense. We made that change two years ago and ended up going 81-57 (+64 units) in 2018, 65-59 in 2019 (+16 units) and 55-62 in last year's unusual pandemic season. Again, we’ll have all write-ups (except Monday Night Football) posted on Friday but our actual wagers won’t be posted until Sunday morning between 10 AM and 12:00 PM EST

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Denver -6 -105 over JACKSONVILLE

1:00 PM EST. Do we like spotting road points with the Broncos? No chance but this isn’t about Denver, This is a straight up attack on Jaguars coach, Urban Meyer. As for the Broncs, they played a game in which the final score flattered the team that lost by double-digits, as the Giants tacked on a major with zeroes on the clock for a 27-13 final. While not exciting, Teddy Bridgewater was efficient against an underrated Giants’ defense. This week, he gets the Jags, who look to be an absolute mess and it’s not going to get any better. 

If you are wondering how the Urban Meyer experiment is going in Jacksonville, boy, do we have a story for you. We’ve ripped Meyer since his arrival in J-Ville and much of our criticism was apparently warranted, at least if we are to believe CBS’s Jason La Canfora. According to La Canfora, Meyer’s totalitarian college boy schtick is already played out in North Florida. One source was quoted, He becomes unhinged way too easily, and he doesn't know how to handle losing, even in the preseason. He loses it and wants to take over the drills himself. It's not good".

Oh, you mean a life-long bully, who made a fortune and built his career on the backs of unpaid college athletes can’t change his ways? To quote the great Jim Lahey, “A shit leopard (or in this case Jaguar) can’t change its spots.” There is so much more to chew on, but we’ll give you one more gem from another source and leave it at that. "You can't freak out about preseason games and belittle your coaches -- on a staff you handpicked -- every time things don't go your way. It's not going to work here." That’s good shit, pal. Fertile recruiting regions with a big name school has made many coaches look good in the past and Urban Meyer is the latest POS that will inevitably head back to some big name college to save his face. Until then, we’re going to get more opportunities. 

As for the Jaguars’ performance in Week 1? They played like a team in turmoil being run by a POS whose ability to alienate people is even greater than his predecessor’s. By all accounts, the Texans were to be the worst team in the league or contenders for the first 0-17 season. Well, how did that work out for old Urban? His Jags were waffled to the tune of 37-21 and that score flattered the coach. It was 34-7 with less than four minutes to go in the third quarter. The Jags would tack on two garbage TDs, including one with five seconds to go because, well, you know Meyer had to take what he could get when he could get it. Jacksonville was outgained, lost the time of possession, lacked discipline (taking 10 penalties) and most importantly got outscored badly by the lowly Houston Texans. 

To recap, the Jags couldn’t move the ball five yards against the worst team in football and they appear to be taking a step up in competition here against a very good defense. Until the already embattled Meyer either quits or gets fired in Jacksonville, the Jaguars are going to be quality fade material. Recommendation: Denver -6

L.A. Rams -3½ -105 over INDIANAPOLIS

1:00 PM EST. Usually, we’re not in the habit of spotting road points with a team that won big in a prime time game, but there are exceptions to every rule. In this case, we are looking to fade the Colts and their wholly unvaccinated quarterback Carson Wentz. Last week the four remaining starting pivots (Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Kirk Cousins and Wentz) in this league that remain a burden to society all took the loss. These players are a pain in the ass for the coaching staff to deal with, a nightmare for the front office to accommodate and by the way, they are supposed to be the leaders of their teams. They are all certainly compensated enough that a couple of jabs to avoid alienating your teammates and benefitting the rest of society would be an easy call to make. Until we see something otherwise, Wentz and crew are going to be on the radar as fade material.

The Rams don’t need much of a recap here, as they were on full display Sunday night in a blowout win over the Bears. L.A. looks to be able to score in bunches, which is what one needs to cover road points. This number also tilts us towards the Rams because it is often appealing for the market to bite on the hook of a key number like three because they think they are getting an edge. However, the point spread usually does not factor into the final score anyway. While we are aware that the Super Bowl Champion Buccaneers will be in L.A. for a late afternoon tilt next Sunday, with a fresh new leader in Matt Stafford, we do not anticipate a letdown here. 

Make no mistake that we are not in love with the Rams here. However, by process of elimination (we refuse to back unvaccinated leaders until we see something different), our hand is forced to play the Rams. Sometimes you just have to play the hand you have been dealt. Recommendation L.A. Rams -3½

CLEVELAND -13 -105 over HOUSTON

1:00 PM EST. The Texans were pegged to be the worst team in this league by nearly every pundit on this planet. From the top down, Houston’s reputation was in the mud to start the season. Hell, they were a dog at home to the Jaguars and their rookie quarterback in Week 1. That’s some pretty disrespectful stuff and so the Texans came out with a chip on their shoulder and subsequently racked up nearly 400 yards of total offense, led by the unlikely duo of Tyrod (Car Parts) Taylor and Mark Ingram. In retrospect, it might have looked silly for those vets to be overlooked, as both have been in this league a long time. Hell, Ingram is a three time Pro-Bowl selection that didn’t get a sniff in most fantasy drafts while Car Parts took the Bills to the damn playoffs after a two-decade drought. Tyrod’s performance also quieted any chatter about whether or not the embattled Deshaun Watson will play any time soon (he won’t).

Houston won by a 16-point (37-21) margin last Sunday and now they are taking back what looks to be a ridiculous pile of points here in Week 2 against the 0-1 Browns. However, we would proceed with caution before revving up the Texans bandwagon in this spot. This appears to be not only a difficult matchup, but also a prime lookahead situation with Houston hosting the Panthers next week on Thursday Night Football. Unless by some miracle the Texans get flexed into a high profile, late season prime time game, next Thursday is their only taste of national exposure in 2021. For those of us that watch these games no matter what, that might not mean much, but for the Texans players and fans, it’s going to be a big party. When sandwiched with their Week 1 route and TNF, this trip to Cleveland has the potential to be overlooked. 

The Brownies went toe-to-toe with the mighty Chiefs, but covering against Kansas City is not what it once was and the market is catching on. It’s not to say that the result isn’t a worthy one, but it no longer carries the same weight as it did two years ago, as the Chiefs have struggled to cash tickets dating to the middle of last season. As for Cleveland in Week 2, we are still bullish on this team for the same reasons we listed last week. A great offensive line, two strong runners and a quality quarterback with a ton of options. Baker Mayfield will be without wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr., but his absence will be filled by another capable body. We could see an overreaction to that injury, but as we say time and again, we don’t give a shit about injuries, as they are always factored into the spread. The Browns have nothing on deck that would suggest they will not be primed and pissed off after losing last week. The Dog Pound will be barking loud, FirstEnergy Stadium will be packed and hungry for a blowout. At 0-1, the Brownies cannot overlook anyone. The market is a week too late on the Texans. Recommendation: CLEVELAND -13

CAROLINA -3½ -105 over New Orleans

1:00 PM EST. The Panthers narrowly covered against the Jets, which won’t likely carry much weight in this market. However, we are not as down on the Jets as most and give the Panthers credit for winning that game. We backed New York in that one, but before you accuse us of zig-zagging here, trust that this play has less to do with Carolina and much more to do with the Saints, who could be the biggest zig-zag in the market this week. 

The Saints blew the doors off the Packers in Jacksonville in Week 1 with a 38-3 drubbing that had Aaron Rodgers watching from the sidelines long before the final whistle. The Saints leaped up the power rankings and there are many talking heads changing their tone when it comes to this team. Under Sean Payton, the Saints have been a consistent contender most seasons, but they were expected to take a step back in 2021 without Drew Brees. We cannot overstate the impact that the Saints resonating beatdown of the Packers has this week. 

Enter Jameis Winston, who threw an eye-popping five touchdowns to zero interceptions. Putting up a crooked number in the touchdown department is a great way for Winston to rehabilitate his reputation in the market. If Winston was available in your Fantasy League, he isn’t anymore. As impressive as those five majors were, they came on a day when Winston threw for just 148 yards on 14-of-20 pass attempts. A near 75% completion percentage is nice, but it was clear from the get-go that the running game is going to be the centerpiece of this New Orleans offense. The Saints rushed almost 40 times with 31 carries going to the duo of Alvin Kamara and Tony Jones. Payton is like an old carney wrestling promoter. He highlighted Winston’s positives and hid (or limited) his negatives. A 5-0 TD to INT ratio is impressive, but for a guy with Winston’s history of mistakes, is it sustainable?

The Saints went from a 3½-point dog last week on neutral field to spotting better than a field goal on the road in Carolina, a division rival they have kicked around for years. On the surface, it might look like a short price, but the reality is, the Panthers should be favored here. The Saints have been nomads since Hurricane Ida and they are now practicing at TCU in Fort Worth after working out in Dallas prior. While they remain in the DFW, the Saints are still living out of their suitcases and have been for weeks. That is going to get old very soon if it hasn’t already. Now pile the fact that the Saints had a COVID outbreak in their organization that affected the coaching staff and injured star Michael Thomas. This entire 2021 experience will eventually take a toll and we can envision a lesser performance here after a very satisfying one last week. Moreover, next week the Saints travel to New England. Distractions and exhaustion are not conducive to covering road points. Recommendation: Carolina +3½

PHILADELPHIA +3 -105 over San Francisco 

1:00 PM EST. Depending on when you bet it, San Francisco covered for early bettors last week but did not cover for those that chose to bet the 49ers at a bad number. We’ll reiterate to lay off games when you’re going with the worst of it. In other words, if a team is -4 all week and then on Game Day they are -6, do not bet that bad price when you could have had them at -4. It’s a common mistake that takes discipline to avoid making.  

That said, the 49ers led 38-10 in the third quarter and let up on the gas so we’re going to go out on a limb and suggest that the 49ers stock was not hurt but allowing the Lions to backdoor cover. The Lions roared back and drew to within eight points to make it look like a close game that it shouldn't have been. The opener went against the Lions, so the schedule was kind and that may have been why the 49ers started the year by never throwing to their No. 1 receiver from last year and benching the running back they moved up to get in the draft. This week will prove if those two surprises of Week 1 were just disciplinary moves or if  the offense really has changed so dramatically in personnel.

The 49ers moved to grab Trey Sermon with their 3.25 pick as the prototypical power back. Of course, he was a healthy scratch in Week 1, and Raheem Mostert only lasted for two carries before being lost for the year. Their 6.10 pick of Elijah Mitchell took over and gained 104 yards and a score on 19 carries versus the weak Lions’ defense.  And the fantasy world was set on fire. In many leagues, teams bid 80 to 95% of their 100% in free-agent money on Mitchell. That’s called “buying into the change” but it’s also a strong reflection of the market that provides us with this great opportunity. 

The Eagles season-opener went very well. Winning 32-6 on the road to the Falcons, the defense played vastly better than it did in 2020. It was an impressive win for first-year head coach Nick Sirianni against one of the worst defenses from last season but the market is not giving the Eagles the respect they deserve. In fact, the respect is so bad that the books made Atlanta a 12-point pooch this week based on them getting torched by the Eagles. 

This is an evenly matched game and therefore the points being offered are not justified. Both the 49ers and Eagles are good in the trenches. Both have questions at quarterback and both have a number of explosive weapons offensively. At full strength, this game is a toss-up but the 49ers are not at full strength, as many regulars are out already. Cornerback Jason Verrett and running back Raheem Mostert are out for the season, while several other key defensive players such as Emmanuel Moseley, Dre Greenlaw, Javon Kinlaw and Arik Armstead are also banged up. 

The Eagles were one of the most impressive teams in Week 1 with a 26-point win in Atlanta, yet the lookahead line barely moved. That suggests that Philadelphia is being overlooked by this market in a big way, which is one of our prompts to move in. Recommendation: Philadelphia +3 

ARIZONA -4½ -105 over Minnesota

4:05 PM EST. Add the Vikings to the list of teams that might be totally fucked up just one week into the season. There has been chatter behind the scenes that the locker room is divided and head coach Mike Zimmer is on the hot seat. We’ll leave Zimmer for now, as it is the clubhouse drama that is most interesting here in the early going.

There are many notable players in Minnesota that are not vaccinated. Adam Thielen, Harrison Smith, Sheldon Richardson and of course quarterback Kirk “If I die, I die” Cousins. We’re going to target Cousins, who had some incredible quotes this summer that really makes one wonder where his priorities are because it is obviously not the health and safety of his teammates. Cousins called his vaccination status "a very private health matter" so you know what that means. Despite the criticism he received and the accusations of being selfish, Cousins double downed and proclaimed "I do believe that I am a leader of the team.” Meanwhile, coach Zimmer said in a radio interview that his COVID-loving quarterback “doesn’t believe in (the vaccine).” Yikes.

There was an ESPN article from early August that stated the Vikings had just a 64.5% vaccination rate. By the end of that month, the team had to bring in disease expert, Michael Osterholm from the University of Minnesota to help educate the players about the benefits of vaccinations as well as address their concerns about misinformation. Not surprisingly, Osterholm gets it more than Cousins, who the Vikings have paid a fuck ton of money to over the years for mediocre results, "If you’re a leader on a football team, it’s about the community looking to you. Young men and women in our community saying in fact, ‘If they’re not going to get it, why should I get it? But if they do get it, maybe I should get it.’ And so I think it was really an ideal opportunity to kind of share about the vaccine and what it means to the community." Basically, Osterhom is calling Cousins a selfish motherfucker, which would be most accurate.

The Cardinals stock may be on the rise, but it doesn’t appear as though they are getting as much credit for last week’s 38-13 molly-whopping of the Titans in Tennessee as one might have thought. We’ve seen some in the market discredit the performance because of an extremely leaky Titans’ defense and the lack of chemistry with the offense after starting quarterback, Ryan Tannehill, missed most of August with a COVID diagnosis. However, there was little chatter of those dents in the Titans armor before kickoff? We sure didn’t hear it. As we say, “It’s easy to play results.” 

We’ve read that this swing in the Cardinals’ point spread projections from last week (+3) to this week is “too much.” Well, it’s pretty clear that last week’s spread was a bad number. Is it out of the question to suggest the same here? The Cards’ stock was in the tank to start the year and coach Kliff Kingsbury was the odds on favorite to be the first bench boss fired. After Week 1, dude looks like a coach of the year candidate. 

Look, we don’t want to make handicapping games anything political but one cannot ignore the human element. One cannot ignore the state of the world or ignore the distrust and anger that a high majority of reasonable caring people have for unvaccinated morons that think they know more than everyone else. Last week there were four unvaccinated QB’s that started a game for their team. Carson Wentz, Kirk Cousins, Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen. Combined, they went 0-4 both straight up and against the spread. Coincidence? Is there a correlation between unvaccinated leaders (QB’s) and losing? Maybe there is and maybe there is not but we are not getting behind unvaccinated QB’s just in case there is a correlation. A divided team is a broken team. Recommendation: ARIZONA -4½

ATLANTA +12 -105 TAMPA BAY 

4:05 PM EST. Managing over and underreactions to Week 1 is a key criterion in Week 2 and this game fits the bill on both fronts. First let’s start with the Falcons, who laid an egg at home against the Eagles. Atlanta was embarrassed 32-6, which was at least different from its “blow a big lead” formula of recent years. There was some hope for the Falcons this season, as the team surrounded Matt Ryan with a plethora of new weapons. However, the Dirty Birds hung just two field goals on the board at home in Week 1. That will get one written off by this market pretty quick. While it was bad for the Falcons, it wasn’t nearly bad enough to justify the complete tanking of their stock.

A last second field goal was enough to push the Bradys, er, Buccaneers over the Cowboys on opening night, but we doubt that Tampa will take much of a hit to its reputation despite not covering what at close was quite frankly a ridiculous spread (-9). For those that may question how the Cowboys and Falcons could be separated by such a small number on the same field just 10 day later, it’s worth noting that the Bucs opened as -6½ point favorites against Dallas and the efficient market bet them up to that inflated closing price. It is with that in mind that we suggest that this is way too many points for the Falcons to be taking back in a division game in Week 2. Do the Bucs really need to paste these guys? While Brady and the offense put up points, it wasn’t all sunshine and rainbows. The defense looked like it just stumbled out from a Super Bowl after party. Furthermore, this is a massive sandwich game for the Bucs, as they opened the NFL season on National TV against Dallas on a Thursday night and will travel next week to Los Angeles to play the Rams in the featured 4:30 PM slot. Recommendation: Atlanta -12 -105

Tennessee +6½ -105 over SEATTLE

4:25 PM EST. There is much to chew on from the Seahawks season opening victory in Indianapolis and so we are going to get right to it and chow down. We’re going to set aside the 28-16 final for a moment and focus on the game script, which shows that the Seachickens were fortunate to leave Indy with a double-digit victory. Seattle was second to the Colts in first downs (23-to-18), lost the time of possession by over 11 minutes and even had far more penalties (seven to two), yet still won with ease. Hell, if not for the Colts tacking on a late TD, the ‘Hawks would have won by three touchdowns. None of that adds up. To recap. The Seahawks are a known commodity that paid off in spades in Week 1. They are also coming home to the loudest stadium in the NFL. What it all equals up to is the Seachickens spotting grossly inflated points to a team that can absolutely beat them 

The Titans got an up-close look at the Kyler Murray show and they did not like what they saw, getting smacked in the mouth, 38-13. The Cards went gate to wire, jumping out to a 17-0 lead and leaving Tennessee in the dust. The Titans’ defense took most of the heat for the bungled home opener, but the Cardinals’ effort on D deserves more credit.

Enter Ryan Tannehill and the offense, which sputtered. The big reason for that is because Derrick Henry could not get going, picking up just 58 yards on 17 attempts. Containing Henry week to week is going to be a tough assignment for any defense because he’s always capable of going off for a huge game. As Henry goes, so do Tannehill and the Titans.

Another big market mistake is overreacting to one game. Week 2 overreactions are usually the biggest ones of the year after the market gets their first look at teams. Never overreact to one game, as any team or player can have a bad game. Furthermore, Week 1 is a small indication of things to come and we therefore must try and take advantage of the market’s reaction to Week 1.  Also, when a team gets embarrassed, especially a defense, they are usually chomping at the bit to get back out there and make up for their shortcomings. Tennessee is a quality outfit that is being offered inflated points here because of last week’s blowout loss. Recommendation: Tennessee +6½

Kansas City -3½ -105 over BALTIMORE

8:20 PM EST. Patrick Mahomes might be the most popular player in the NFL. However, those accolades are meaningless in the market when one does not send its backers to the pay window with regularity. For Kansas City, cashing tickets has been the exception, not the norm, as it’s gone just 2-9 against the spread since the calendar turned to November last season. The Chiefs failed to cover at home against the Browns and now they are road chalk in Baltimore. That might look like an unfavorable proposition, but there is a very good chance that Mahomes and company are being short changed here.

The Ravens were on the wrong end of a wild finish that was fit for Las Vegas on Monday Night Football, but that wacky overtime loss did little to damage their stock or temper their high expectations. However, Lamar Jackson did what he always does on Monday Night Football, that being, scamper around, avoid tacklers, move the chains and live up to his Superman moniker. He also had the announcers drooling about how good he was. What they hardly mentioned is that he fumble twice and cost his team the game. Just because the finish was filled with a series of unfortunate events for the Ravens, the biggest mistake of the night belonged to Jackson and he and his teammates ate shit for it. The only thing that might make that worse would be if he was totally alienated from his mates during the week because he’s unvaccinated. Oops.

Forgive us for continuing to hammer home how fucking stupid Lamar Jackson is for not getting vaccinated. Not only would it benefit his team, it would set a great example in Baltimore, where the population is not only primarily black (62.8%), but it also woefully unvaccinated, as just 57.8% of those eligible (12+) are double jabbed. If that wasn’t enough, dude had COVID fucking twice. TWICE! Beyond all of that, one would think that a motherfucker that fancies himself the future of the position and the face of the franchise would have some common sense when it came his fucking bank account. This dude is desperate for a life-changing, big-money deal like Josh Allen. Does he have nobody around him to give him the prudent advice to suck it up and get the shot? Sure beats the $100 bribe offered to anti-vaxxers in Alberta. 

While the Ravens won’t say it, when combined with the mountain of mistakes and postseason failure, this blatant lack of respect for the organization is a slap in the face. Jackson’s abduction of leadership would make Alberta Premier, Jason Kenney, blush and that ghoul is responsible for thousands of needless deaths. Would you want to give a guy that doesn’t appear to give a shit about anyone but himself $100-million plus in guaranteed money? That extension is hanging over Lamar Jackson like a dark cloud and the longer it plays out and gets delayed, the worse it is going to get. Dude is one bad hit from becoming RGIII, which should resonate, as Jackson spent much time with Robert Griffin the last three seasons. You know dude wants his money, as he is on the last season of his rookie contract. Every great QB gets a deal but not this motherfucker. Why and what does this have to do with covering or not? It has everything to do with it because like the others, the divide in the locker room is just going to get larger, especially after an 0-2 start. Recommendation: Kansas City -3½ -105

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