NFL 2021

Week 1

What you see below is our early leans. Many of the selections below will stay the same and some will be moved into official plays with wagers on Sunday. However, there is also the possibility that we see, read or get a sense that something is not right with one of our selections and change our pick. There are several different criteria we use to grade a game and make it an official play and a lot of things can happen or change between Friday and Sunday.

We’re intent on providing our readers with the best possible selections and doing so on Sunday instead of Friday just makes more sense. We made that change two years ago and ended up going 81-57 (+64 units) in 2018, 65-59 in 2019 (+16 units) and 55-62 in last year's unusual pandemic season. Again, we’ll have all write-ups (except Monday Night Football) posted on Friday but our actual wagers won’t be posted until Sunday morning between 10 AM and 12:00 PM EST

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DETROIT +8 -105 over San Francisco

The 6-10 49ers look to bounce back from the devastating injuries of 2020 while the 5-11 Lions are onto another rebuild, only without Matt Stafford for the first time in 12 years. The Lions makeover is expected to keep them struggling but that's no change from last year. The 49er's are expected to reassert themselves in the NFC West again. Point is, expectations for San Fran are high while expectations for the Lions are non-existent. 

The 49ers were ravaged by injuries and the only ball handler that played all 16 games was the fullback, Kyle Juszczyk. Everyone else missed games. Raheem Mostert, Jimmy Garoppolo, Tevin Coleman, George Kittle, and Deebo Samuels all failed to play more than eight games. Throw in a pandemic and they never had a chance. This is Kyle Shanahan's fifth season and the offense is mature and capable if they can just stay on the field.

The 49ers tabbed Trey Lance with their 1.03 pick as the heir to the quarterback throne but they still held onto Jimmy Garoppolo. The quarterback competition isn’t over, thus, there is a distinct chance that both will play, maybe even in the same games. Garoppolo is the pocket passer that's played all 16 games in only one of his seven years in the league. Lance is the cannon-arm rookie that only started for one full season at North Dakota State, and not only passed for 2,768 yards and 28 touchdowns, he also ran for 1,100 yards and 14 scores. Very different skill sets between the two. 

The Lions have been a shit show for 100 years. Dan Campbell is the new head coach after last coaching tight ends for the Saints. He brings in ex-head coach Anthony Lynn of the Chargers to run the offense. Both are capable coaches and should improve on the low bar set by the Matt Patricia era but none of that matters for Week 1 or to a market that wouldn’t bet Detroit with counterfeit money. Everyone knows that Jared Goof Goff is a significant downgrade from Matt Stafford. 

That’s the setup for a game that looks easy from a betting standpoint but we’ll reiterate that taking the same side as the efficient market seldom works out well. We’d be fibbing if we didn’t think the 49ers are going to go into Detroit and frogstomp the Lions but what we think means jack. We’re changing gears here and recommending the Lions or nothing because the points are inflated to a large degree, as the market continues to pound the 49ers. Recommendation: Detroit +8

ATLANTA -3½ -101 over Philadelphia

1:00 PM EST. The Eagles put all their eggs in the Jalen Hurts basket, but it remains to be seen if that was the prudent play. On the surface, it looks easy to move on from the often-injured Carson Wentz in light of Hurts' emergence. The Eagles’ offseason was a weird one that started in Week 17 last year when then-head coach Doug Pederson decided to tank Philadelphia's game against Washington for a better draft pick, handing the NFC East crown to the Football Team. Well, Pederson got his pick (10th overall), but he also received his walking papers. Quite the fall from grace for the only Super Bowl-winning coach in Eagles’ history. That championship was less than three years ago; building a dynasty just isn't what it used to be, eh?

Nick Sirianni took over for Pederson, Wentz was traded to the Colts and Hurts was handed the keys to the Eagle kingdom. With that, expectations are no doubt higher than they would have been under the former coach/quarterback combo. Hurts has been pegged as a popular breakout star in fantasy circles. The Eagles then drafted former Alabama receiver and favorite target of Hurts, Devonta Smith with that number 10 pick. That pairing has the Eagles’ offense looking to take the next step, but we'd pump the breaks on that.

The Falcons have become an easy fade target in this market. That's what happens when you build your reputation on blowing big leads in winnable games. It happened most notably in Super Bowl LI after a 19-point fourth-quarter by New England ripped Matt Ryan's only chance at glory. Worse than that though, is that it has become a trend that has continued year after year. Remember the Dallas game last season or the Falcons' home loss to Tampa in December where they blew leads of 17-0 and 27-7 respectively? You get the picture. The Falcons are a hard team to trust, we get that but they have washed the slate clean and we’re going to suggest that it is the Eagles and not the Falcons that are not to be trusted. Recommendation: ATLANTA -3½ -101

Pittsburgh +6½ over BUFFALO -109

1:00 PM EST. You may have noticed that we wrote the Steelers up to go under their season win total and we trust that wager will cash come season's end. Moreover, we cannot let it dictate how we do business week-to-week.

As for Pittsburgh here in Week 1, there is much to like about its ability to cover this number. From time to time, you'll see us write that "the price dictates the play," and that is very much true here. We are not high on the Steelers; that much was made clear in our preseason analysis; however, as we say, we don't have biases and therefore cannot ignore what the oddsmakers are telling us.

For the Bills to cash this ticket on a converted touchdown at home is going to be an appealing play in Week 1. With Josh Allen at the helm, the Bills have a ton of hype around them. Buffalo is coming off an AFC Championship Game appearance. To suggest anything but a Super Bowl run to the Bills Mafia might get you slammed through a flaming table.

We have no idea how the Steelers will perform but what we do know is that Buffalo has turned from the hunter to the hunted and with that comes the weight of expectations. It’s an entirely different role that they are not accustomed to. And what about Josh Allen?

In his first two years in the league, Josh Allen’s play was so erratic and unpredictable that it was dubbed “The Josh Allen Experience.” Accuracy problems and a striking lack of fundamentals plagued 2018’s seventh overall pick. But Allen showed flashes of promise as his sophomore season came to a close, thus putting the Bills high on everyone’s radar. He picked up last season where he left off, turning in not just a good season in 2020, but an unexpectedly elite one. His opponent-adjusted Total QBR of 81.7 was third in the NFL and ranks as the 12th highest in the league since 2006. 

Most explanations for Allen’s improvement note his winning attitude and raw potential — potential that was ultimately unlocked through patience and good coaching. It’s a nice, feel-good story about long odds and hard work. But despite Allen being rewarded with a contract that made him the second-highest paid player at his position, at least one NFL decision maker is still unsure if he’s the real deal: “He perplexes me,” an anonymous personnel director told The Athletic’s Mike Sando, “because in my career I have not seen someone go from as inaccurate as he was in college to making this kind of transition.”

In 2019, Allen’s sophomore season, 23 percent of his incompletions were charted as off-target by ESPN’s Stats & Information Group, worst in the league. Based on history, we would have expected his below-average performance to continue. However, Allen’s off-target rate fell dramatically last year to 15.4 percent, a hair better than league average. That 7.6 percentage point improvement was good for second best in the NFL in 2020, behind only MVP Aaron Rodgers. 

Still, as impressive as Allen’s rapid ascent was, it should probably give us pause. Of the 31 players since 2006 to record at least a 5-point improvement in off-target rate, nearly three quarters saw it rise the following season. Off-target throws that end in incompletions aren’t the end of the story, though. “Off-frame” passes — passes that were thrown high, low, ahead or behind a target but were still caught — represent another way to quantify Allen’s accuracy. By this measure, 2020 was a banner year for him. Allen threw for 10 touchdowns on 58 plays categorized as “off the frame” by the ESPN Stats & Information Group. That compares to just two touchdowns on 46 such plays in 2019. Allen’s 10 TDs in 2020 are tied for second most in a season since 2017 (the first year for which we have data). Moreover, Allen’s eight-touchdown increase on off-frame throws accounts for 47 percent of his total year-over-year touchdown improvement.

Allen’s success on these throws appears to be heavily driven by luck instead of skill. Among Allen’s peers who threw six or more off-frame TDs in a season, 85 percent saw their TD totals fall the next year. Allen already beat the odds simply by making it to the NFL. Allen led the Bills to two playoff wins, inserted himself into the MVP discussion, and followed that up by getting paid like a 1990s rock star. The hype surrounding him and the Bills now provides us with this great opportunity to take back inflated points. You see, the evidence suggesting Allen is due for regression is powerful. Recommendation: Pittsburgh +6½ -109

INDIANAPOLIS +3 -109 over Seattle

1:00 PM EST. There is a new man under center in Indianapolis for the third straight season, as the Colts continue to feel the effects of former franchise quarterback Andrew Luck's sudden retirement prior to the 2019 season. Jacoby Brissett filled for most of the first season post Luck, but in 2020, the Colts looked to veteran Philip Rivers, who led them to an 11-5 record and a Wild Card spot. Rivers would retire after Indy's 27-24 first-round loss in Buffalo, leaving the Colts once again looking outside the organization for its new starting pivot.

Enter Carson Wentz, who was run out of Philadelphia after the emergence of Jalen Hurts. Wentz's time in Philly was full of ups and downs, with the latter far outweighing the former. Well, if dude thought a change of scenery would turn around his luck, he was sorely mistaken, blue horseshoe be damned. Wentz did not see the field in the preseason due to a foot injury and then a COVID infection. The Colts activated Wentz from the COVID list last Thursday and while there may be some concern in the market that he has yet to take the field with his new teammates, we're not that worried. Even if Wentz were healthy, he would not have seen much, if any time with nothing on the line. Dude has an injury history a mile long and the Colts invested significant draft stock in him by way of a 2021 third-round pick and a 2022 conditional second-rounder. As for the uncertainty about Wentz's status for Week 1, if he can walk, he's going to play. Even if he gets knocked around, second-year man Jacob Eason is waiting in the wings. He had an impressive preseason and the benefit of being the understudy to Rivers last year. Long term, Eason may be the best man for the job, but we'll save his story for another day.

The Seahawks won the NFC West with a 12-4 record, but most of the damage (7-1) they did came in the comfy confines of Lumen Field, the loudest stadium in the NFL. Sure, there were few to no fans in 2020, but that Seattle posted just a 5-3 mark under those ideal road conditions is worth noting, as Lucas Oil Stadium will be packed to the rafters. Although the Seahawks had great regular season success, they were once again sent packing early in the playoffs after losing a 30-20 decision at home to the Rams in the Wild Card round.

One can't help but wonder if the Russell Wilson-led Seahawks have peaked, at least under Pete Carroll. There was much offseason chatter about a potential Wilson trade to places like Chicago and Las Vegas. In this league, when it comes to unhappy high-profile quarterbacks, where there is smoke, there is often fire. See Rodgers and Brady. Will those distractions bleed into the regular season? We won't know for sure until Seattle takes the field, but it's not out of the question. Those are not the seeds of doubt we want to be planted when spotting road points. The Colts are the prudent play here. Recommendation: INDIANAPOLIS +3 -109

Arizona +2½ +106 over TENNESSEE

1:00 PM EST. The Titans have high expectations here in 2021 after back-to-back trips to the playoffs under the Mike Vrabel/Ryan Tannehill regime, including a trip to the AFC Championship game in 2019. Tennessee won the AFC South last season, but was upended at home by the Ravens 20-13 in the Wild Card game.

The Titans made a "splash" in the offseason by acquiring whatever is left of Julio Jones from the Falcons. Whether or not Jones can play more than a decoy (or stay on the field for that matter) for A.J. Brown on the other side remains to be seen. Regardless, the Titans are still going to be a run-first time behind Derrick Henry. Tennessee's summer didn't come without some bumps in the road, as Tannehill tested positive for COVID. Dude is lucky he "didn't have it too bad" because it likely would have been worse had he not been partially vaccinated. Tannehill was against the jab, but did not want to be isolated from the rest of the team. "I wouldn't have gotten the vaccine without the protocols they're enforcing on us." While Tannehill was "forced" into doing the right thing, it wasn’t in time to stop him from spreading the virus and admitted, "(COVID) kind of went through my house. My wife got it after I did. She had it a little worse than I did." The Tannehill’s also have two young children at home. Personal choices have consequences, kids. Point is, Anti-Vaxxers have no credibility with any reasonable people. The players in that Tennessee locker room want a leader they can trust and Tannehill may have lost the respect of his teammates. That matters.

The Cardinals are coming off a disappointing 8-8 campaign in a year where many expected Kyler Murray and head coach Kliff Kingsbury to take the team to the next level. In a way, they did, improving on the Cards' five wins in 2019. That win total could have been greater had Arizona not imploded in the second half of the season, losing seven of its last nine games. Arizona added some notable veterans on offense in AJ Green and James Conner. While those players may be past their prime, neither will be counted on as the number one option. A little veteran leadership in the huddle can't hurt. In the loaded NFC West, it appears the Cardinals are flying under the radar. That makes them a strong buy-low candidate, as we're always looking to invest in teams before their stock goes up. Recommendation: Arizona +2½ +106

Cleveland +5½ -107 over KANSAS CITY

4:25 PM EST. Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs need little introduction here, nor do they need us to slobber all over them. The market is very familiar with Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill and the rest of the weapons in this offensive juggernaut and because of that, you are often going to pay a premium to back them. Early in the season, when we know very little about these squads, the Chiefs are like a warm blanket or your favorite movie. They are comfort food for a market looking for an easy winner. However, would it be unreasonable to suggest that after a second straight Super Bowl appearance, the Chiefs might be nursing a hangover?

The Browns took a step forward last season by not only making the playoffs but winning a Wild Card game over the Steelers. Some may discount that win because Mason Rudolph was under center for Pittsburgh, but a playoff win is a playoff win and there is much to like about the Browns in 2021.

Cleveland returns all five starting offensive linemen from a unit that was tops in pass blocking and second in run blocking in 2020. We cannot overstate how important the hogs up front are. This Browns' group is a big reason why we are so bullish on Baker Mayfield and company. They feature a two-headed monster in the backfield in Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt and Mayfield has a variety of quality passing options. Not only do the Browns have a great chance to cover this number, but they have everything needed to win this game outright. Recommendation: Cleveland +5½ -107

Miami +3 +105 over NEW ENGLAND

4:25 PM EST. Do you think Bill Belichick misses Tom Brady yet? Ya think that bitter old dude watched Tommy Boy hoist his sixth Lombardi Trophy? You don't have to answer that; it was a rhetorical question. If by some chance, BB did tune in on Super Bowl Sunday, we have no doubt he gave the game no more than a stern glance on his way to the bean dip.

That said, the winds of change blew through Foxborough once again this summer, as the Patriots cut ties with former number one pick Cam Newton. Newton's fall from grace after a Super Bowl appearance with the Panthers way back in 2016 has been a steep decline. Dude's now been cut in each of the last two off seasons. Cam became expendable after the Patriots drafted former Alabama quarterback Mac Jones. It's not really a surprise that BB would rather mold his quarterback from scratch as opposed to trying to fix an unvaccinated former star with a big ego.

Uncharacteristically, the Patriots had a horrible year because they had a horrible QB. At least that’s the market perception. Mac Jones is supposed to be a massive upgrade. BB did not lose his credibility because of one bad year without a QB. Let’s give the Patriots a mulligan for last year and the market will instantly gravitate to New England at home in Week 1 at a small price. Look back over the past 20 years and try to find when the Patriots were priced so low to open the year. This is still the Patriots. The stink of one-bad year does not change market perceptions drastically for a model franchise, especially when the bad apple has been taken out of the equation. New England -3 at home to open the year? Really? It looks like a gift but we’re going to suggest being very cautious.

Year two of “Tua Time” begins without the safety net of Ryan Fitzpatrick, and so there is much pressure on the man who preceded Jones as the pivot for the Crimson Tide to take it to the next level. Tagovailoa’s stock has dropped this offseason after trade rumors involving the embattled Deshaun Watson were the subject of much chatter. When you might get traded for a dude that is potentially facing criminal charges and a lengthy suspension, the market takes notice. Any hype Tua had last season has been snuffed out by the high-profile quarterback class of 2021, and many in Miami are apparently ready to move on. Why?

Buying low is one of our many criteria and with that in mind, Tagovailoa is a commodity that may be worth an investment. It might be easy to be down on Tua, but it's only in recent years that rookie pivots have been expected to not only start, but perform at a high level out of the gate. Is that really fair? Hell, look at the former first overall picks that have been cast aside recently. Newton, Winston and Goff. All had considerable success and still got the boot. This is a fickle league with a short memory. We are willing to trust that Tua has the skill and weapons around him necessary to continue to grow. Miami coach and former Belichick understudy Brian Flores agrees and likes what he sees. "Good fundamentals, good technique, good communication, good decisions." With that in mind, we’re going to trust the oddsmakers in this one, that being not offering up enough points to a Miami team that has had a fraction of the success that New England has had over the past two decades. Take the points. Recommendation: Miami +3 +105

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